The Federal Funding Calendar, 2026 to 2031

The problem

FY2027 began on October 1, 2026 under P.L. 119-103, which the Senate passed 90–6 on August 8 and the House 370–48 on September 1 (U.S. Senate, roll call vote 228; House Clerk, roll call 286). It funds agencies at FY2026 rates through December 11, 2026; a funding gap would begin December 12 (CRS R49353; White House statement on H.R. 6500, September 2026). The same law carries 13 Division B extensions that end December 11 (Sections 2001 to 2005, 2011 to 2017 and 2019), a surface transportation extension in Division C and Veterans Affairs extenders in Division D, so December 11 is the end date for more than appropriations (Exhibit 87) (P.L. 119-103, enrolled text).

The FY2026 cycle shows how long the process can take. A lapse in discretionary appropriations in October and November 2025 ended with the enactment of P.L. 119-37 on November 12, 2025 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026; CRS R44668; CRS R45210). CJS, Energy and Water, and Interior were enacted January 23, 2026 (P.L. 119-74) (CRS R49427; CRS R49292). Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Financial Services, Transportation-HUD and National Security-State followed on February 3, 2026 (P.L. 119-75), after a lapse from January 31 to February 2 (CRS R49427; CRS R44668). Homeland Security then entered a lapse that began February 14, 2026 and was the longest in the department’s history (CRS R49105). DHS except Border Patrol and ICE finished April 30 in P.L. 119-86, 76 days with both end dates counted (CRS R49105) or 75 full days (CRS RS20348); Border Patrol and ICE funding came June 10 in P.L. 119-98, the reconciliation law, 116 days after February 14 (the date difference, as R49105 lists it) (CRS R49427).

The FY2027 bills are at an earlier stage than the calendar suggests. By June 26, 2026, the House Appropriations Committee had reported all 12 bills (House Appropriations Committee, FY27 markup schedule; FY27 bill text and reports). The House has passed three: Military Construction-VA (400–15, May 15), Agriculture (213–210, June 4) and National Security-State (217–209, July 15) (House Clerk, roll call 175; roll call 205; roll call 247). CRFB’s September 3, 2026 tracker lists no Senate Appropriations Committee markups or passage (CRFB, Appropriations Watch, September 3, 2026). CRS reports from September 2026 record no Senate markup of the Agriculture, Labor-HHS-Education or Homeland Security bills and no Senate Transportation-HUD bill or allocations (CRS R49343; CRS R49344; CRS R49427; CRS R49341).

The FY2027 reference points differ. The President’s request, submitted April 3, 2026, is $1.875 trillion in discretionary budget authority: $1,154 billion for defense, 28 percent above FY2026, and $721 billion for nondefense, 16 percent below (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The House committee-reported and passed bills total $1.891 trillion on CBO’s score (status as of June 25, 2026) (CBO, House status report, July 2, 2026). The continuing resolution rate is $1.701 trillion (Exhibit 88) (CBO cost estimate, August 5, 2026). Against CBO’s baseline, the request raises defense outlays by $224 billion and lowers nondefense outlays by $459 billion in 2036 (Exhibit 89) (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). In its report on the National Security-State bill, CRS lists the paths for the bills as conference, an omnibus or minibus, further continuing resolutions, or a lapse in appropriations.

No enforced cap or budget resolution frames FY2027

CBO’s May 30, 2023 letter on the Fiscal Responsibility Act (P.L. 118-5) describes enforceable caps for FY2024 and FY2025, enforced by sequestration, and separate limits for FY2026 through FY2029 enforced through the congressional budget process (CBO letter on the Fiscal Responsibility Act, May 30, 2023). CBO reported on August 15, 2025 that the caps expire at the end of FY2025 and that it could not project caps for 2026 (CBO, Sequestration 2025, August 15, 2025). CRFB’s September 3, 2026 tracker records no enforceable caps for FY2027 (CRFB, Appropriations Watch, September 3, 2026). The House adopted a FY2027 budget resolution, H.Con.Res. 113, 216–214 on July 22, 2026; it instructs four committees to report changes in law that increase the deficit over fiscal years 2027 to 2036, by up to $60 billion for Armed Services, $12 billion for Agriculture, $13 billion for Intelligence and $10 billion for House Administration (House Clerk, Roll Call 281; H.Con.Res. 113, as engrossed). The Senate’s 2026 roll call list, which runs through September 30, shows no vote on it (U.S. Senate, roll call votes, 119th Congress, 2nd Session). CRS’s September 8, 2026 report on Labor-HHS-Education records no FY2027 budget resolution, statutory spending limits or formal allocations in effect (CRS R49344).

Two other enforcement mechanisms remain. The Budget Control Act’s annual sequester of nonexempt mandatory spending runs through FY2032, and Medicare reductions continue into the first part of FY2033 (CRS R48880). Statutory PAYGO requires OMB to report within 14 days (excluding weekends and holidays) after Congress adjourns to end a session, and limits Medicare reductions to 4 percent (CRS IN12564). CBO estimated in August 2025 that P.L. 119-21 would have led to a $415 billion FY2026 PAYGO sequester; Congress set both PAYGO scorecards to zero in P.L. 119-37 in November 2025 (CBO, PAYGO effects of P.L. 119-21, August 15, 2025; CRS IN12564). Because the sequestration-enforced caps ended with FY2025, no discretionary cap sequester applies to FY2027 appropriations (CBO, Sequestration 2025, August 15, 2025).

Most outlays are set outside annual appropriations

In CBO’s February 11, 2026 baseline, FY2026 outlays are $7.449 trillion: $4.529 trillion mandatory, $1.039 trillion net interest and $1.880 trillion discretionary (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). Mandatory outlays plus net interest are 75 percent of the total in 2026 and 80 percent in 2036, a share derived from CBO’s Table 1-1 (Exhibit 90) (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). Discretionary outlays are 5.9 percent of GDP in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2036, against a 50-year average of 7.8 percent; CBO’s June 30, 2026 analysis describes the 2026 share as the lowest since 1962 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026; CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). CBO projects defense outlays rising from $885 billion in 2026 to $1,100 billion in 2036 and nondefense outlays from $996 billion to $1,144 billion (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026).

The discretionary path follows a statutory baseline convention. Section 257 of the Deficit Control Act directs CBO to raise personnel funding with the employment cost index and other funding with the GDP price index, which yields outlay growth of 1.8 percent a year over 2027 to 2036 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). In its June 30, 2026 update CBO reports FY2026 discretionary budget authority of $1.8 trillion growing about 2.3 percent a year through 2036, and lowers 2027 to 2036 discretionary outlays by $106 billion from February: $86 billion from legislation and $20 billion from technical changes (Exhibit 91) (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The baseline also continues 2026 funding under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act each year, as the Deficit Control Act requires; without it, the 2036 deficit would be 0.2 percent of GDP smaller (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026).

Interest is the fastest-growing fixed claim

Net interest rises from $1.039 trillion in 2026 (3.3 percent of GDP) to $2.144 trillion in 2036 (4.6 percent) (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). It equals 55 percent of discretionary outlays in 2026 and 96 percent in 2036 (Exhibit 92) (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). CBO projects debt held by the public at 101 percent of GDP in 2026 and 120 percent in 2036 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). In a September 24, 2026 scenario with interest rates 1 percentage point above its extended baseline, CBO projects debt of 222 percent of GDP in 2056, 47 points above the baseline (CBO, alternative scenarios, September 24, 2026).

The baseline has moved since February

CBO attributes $4.7 trillion of added deficits to P.L. 119-21, including economic and debt-service effects, and $3.0 trillion of lower deficits to the tariffs in place in February (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that the administration could not impose tariffs under IEEPA authority (CBO, tariff projections, August 20, 2026). CBO’s August 20, 2026 update projects 2027 to 2036 deficits $0.9 trillion larger than in February, a change it describes as largely driven by the removal of the IEEPA tariffs, and FY2026 net customs revenue about $250 billion lower; CBO also says most of the $166 billion collected under IEEPA will be refunded in FY2026 (CBO, tariff projections, August 20, 2026). CRS reports CBO’s August 2026 updated FY2026 deficit at $2.1 trillion, or 6.6 percent of GDP, against $1.9 trillion and 5.8 percent in February (CRS R49408; CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026). CBO’s February projections exclude appropriation acts passed after January 14, 2026 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026).

Money already committed outside annual appropriations

Two reconciliation laws provide about $355 billion for defense and homeland security outside the annual bills, a sum of amounts on different bases (Exhibit 95) (CRS IN12580; CRS R49408; CBO, June 3, 2026).

P.L. 119-21, defense. Title II provided $156.2 billion in mandatory defense funding, including $29.2 billion for shipbuilding, $25.4 billion for munitions and supply chain, $24.4 billion for integrated air and missile defense, $16.3 billion for readiness, $16.0 billion for low-cost weapons and $14.7 billion for nuclear forces (CRS IN12580). The funds can be obligated until September 30, 2029 and expended through FY2034 (CRS IN12580). CBO reported on April 30, 2026 that $113 billion of the $156 billion appeared in the FY2026 defense request, that base-budget acquisition funding came in below expectations, so the reconciliation money may be replacing base funds rather than only adding to them, and that CBO treats the funds as a one-year increase in its projections (CBO, April 30, 2026). CBO’s May 5, 2025 estimate for the House Armed Services version of the title, which provided $150.3 billion of budget authority, put outlays at $2.0 billion in FY2025, $40.3 billion in FY2026, $42.0 billion in FY2027, $23.5 billion in FY2028, $16.8 billion in FY2029, $9.4 billion in FY2030, $4.9 billion in FY2031 and $5.1 billion over FY2032 to FY2034 (Exhibit 93) (CBO, May 5, 2025). This study does not report a year-by-year outlay schedule for the enacted title.

P.L. 119-21, homeland security. CRS cites $129 billion for the Department of Homeland Security over FY2025 to FY2034 (CRS R49408). GAO reports $45 billion for ICE detention capacity through FY2029, nearly $30 billion for other ICE enforcement available until September 30, 2029, and $2.055 billion for the Secretary of Homeland Security; ICE reported more than $2.5 billion of warehouse and facility purchases (GAO-26-108663, September 24, 2026). CBO’s May 9, 2025 estimate for the House Homeland Security Committee version, which covered CBP and FEMA ($69.0 billion of budget authority), put outlays at a peak of $13.5 billion in FY2030 (CBO, May 9, 2025).

P.L. 119-98, Secure America Act. Enacted June 10, 2026, it provided the Border Patrol and ICE funding that P.L. 119-86 (April 30) did not, with CBP (which includes Border Patrol) and ICE funds available through FY2029 (CRS R49427). CBO’s June 3, 2026 estimate of Senate Amendment 5453 to S. 2 puts budget authority at $69.5 billion, all in FY2026, and outlays at $8.8 billion in FY2026, $15.5 billion in FY2027, $17.9 billion in FY2028 and $20.0 billion in FY2029 (CBO, June 3, 2026). Those four years are 90 percent of the total (Exhibit 94) (CBO, June 3, 2026). The enrolled text of S. 2 appropriates $22.95 billion in Title I and $46.595 billion in Title II, $69.545 billion in all, the same total as CBO’s estimate, with the funds available until September 30, 2029; the year-by-year outlay split is CBO’s estimate of the amendment (S. 2, enrolled text).

Other multiyear money. P.L. 119-21 provided $3.885 billion in mandatory NNSA funding through FY2029 and rescinded unobligated DOE Inflation Reduction Act funds (CRS R48944). Commodity programs are funded through the 2031 crop year (CRS R45210).

Proposed. The President’s FY2027 request seeks $350 billion more in mandatory defense funding through reconciliation; CBO estimates $335 billion of outlays over 2027 to 2036 (Exhibit 95) (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The House adopted H.Con.Res. 113 on July 22, which lets the Committee on Armed Services report changes in law that increase the deficit by up to $60 billion over fiscal years 2027 to 2036, against the $350 billion in the request; no budget resolution has been agreed by both chambers (House Clerk, Roll Call 281; H.Con.Res. 113, as engrossed; U.S. Senate, roll call votes, 119th Congress, 2nd Session).

Mandatory authorities that expire. CRS lists these dates: Community Health Center Fund, National Health Service Corps and Special Diabetes Programs on December 31, 2026; the Medicare physician fee schedule 2.5 percent increase and 1.0 geographic floor on December 31, 2026; Medicaid mobile crisis funding on March 31, 2027; Home Visiting, Money Follows the Person and Puerto Rico Medicaid funding on September 30, 2027; $8 billion of Medicaid DSH reductions beginning October 1, 2027; and Medicare ambulance add-ons and hospice telehealth recertification on December 31, 2027 (CRS R49126). TANF is funded through December 31, 2026 (CRS R44668). Medicare telehealth flexibilities run through December 31, 2027 and the Acute Hospital Care at Home waivers through September 30, 2030 (P.L. 119-75, enrolled text, Secs. 6209 and 6210).

Pressure points by appropriations bill

Agriculture-FDA. The House passed $26.26 billion, 2.6 percent below FY2026; the request is $22.06 billion, down 18.2 percent (CRS R49343). WIC is $8.0 billion in both against $8.2 billion in FY2026, and the continuing resolution lets WIC be apportioned at the rate participation requires (CRS R49343; CRS R49353). The one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill ran until September 30, 2026 (CRS R45210). The House passed the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) 224–200 on April 30, 2026; the Senate Agriculture Committee reported the Agricultural Act of 2026 12–11 in September, a date CRS gives as September 16 (CRS R45210). Under P.L. 119-21, the state share of SNAP administrative costs rose to 75 percent on October 1, 2026, and state benefit cost sharing of 0 to 15 percent by payment error rate begins October 1, 2027, later for states with high error rates; a Senate Agriculture Committee draft would delay it one year (CRS IN12723).

Commerce-Justice-Science. The Census request is $1,723.0 million, 47 percent above FY2026’s $1,171.8 million; the House committee bill provides $1,201.8 million (CRS R48929). The continuing resolution includes anomalies for the 2030 Census buildup and the GeoXO satellite schedule (CRS R49353). NOAA procurement is $1,790.8 million in the House bill, 13.6 percent above FY2026, and the NSF request is 54.7 percent below FY2026 against about 20 percent in the House bill (CRS R48929).

Defense. The request is $1,154 billion, $251 billion above FY2026 (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The House committee approved $1.072 trillion 34–27 on June 24, 2026 (House Appropriations Committee, June 24, 2026). S. 4784 would authorize $1,144.3 billion for FY2027, $252.9 billion above the $891.4 billion appropriated in FY2026, and H.R. 8800 would authorize $1,146 billion (CBO, September 28, 2026). CBO estimates combat operations against Iran cost DoD about $38 billion through August 1, 2026, with $2 billion to $3 billion for each additional month; the Administration requested an $87.6 billion supplemental in June, $67.1 billion of it for DoD (CBO, September 15, 2026). The continuing resolution limits new starts and production rate increases (Sec. 102) (CRS R49353).

Energy and Water. The NNSA request is $32.8 billion, 29 percent above FY2026’s $25.4 billion; the House committee provides $27.1 billion (CRS R48944). Plutonium modernization is $4.9 billion in the request, up 87 percent (CRS R48944). The request proposes canceling $15.247 billion of IIJA advance appropriations and transferring $4.700 billion; the House bill excludes those transfers and transfers $2.675 billion of IIJA balances to small modular reactor demonstrations (CRS R48944).

Financial Services-General Government. P.L. 119-75 rescinded IRS appropriations in FY2026; the continuing resolution excludes the $11.661 billion rescission from its coverage (Sec. 101(8)) (CRS R49353; CRS R49344).

Homeland Security. The request, released April 3, 2026, is $118.39 billion in total budget authority, of which $99.39 billion is gross discretionary including $28.38 billion for major disaster costs; the House bill is $99.63 billion in discretionary budget authority including $28.39 billion for major disaster costs (CRS R49427). The continuing resolution makes up to $26.37 billion of the Disaster Relief Fund available and extends NFIP authority to December 11 (CRS R49353). The House bill includes at least $17.06 billion for ICE and Border Patrol activities that the FY2026 reconciliation law also funds (CRS R49427).

Interior-Environment. The request is $34.82 billion, down 18 percent; the House bill is $42.67 billion, up 0.3 percent (CRS R49292). The EPA request is 52 percent below FY2026 and the House bill 20 percent below (CRS R49292). The request consolidates wildfire programs in a U.S. Wildland Fire Service at $6.91 billion; the House funds the Service at $1.54 billion and keeps Forest Service wildland fire at $5.20 billion, with a cap adjustment of $2.95 billion in both, against $2.85 billion in FY2026 (CRS R49292).

Labor-HHS-Education. The House committee bill provides $189.3 billion in regular discretionary funding, 2.9 percent below FY2026, and $192.5 billion adjusted for program integrity against $198.0 billion (CRS R49344). CRS lists these expiring health provisions: the Community Health Center Fund (December 31, 2026) and Medicaid DSH reductions of $8 billion (beginning October 1, 2027) (CRS R49126).

Legislative Branch. The request is $8.512 billion, up 17.3 percent; the House bill provides $5.442 billion, 1.7 percent below the comparable FY2026 level (CRS R49049). Capitol Police are $852.4 million in FY2026, $1.023 billion in the request and $907.5 million in the House bill (CRS R49049). GAO is $611.9 million in the House bill against an $860.1 million request (CRS R49049). Senate Member security funding enacted in FY2026 is continued in the request and is not in the House bill (CRS R49049).

Military Construction-VA. The VA request is $481.88 billion, up 8.17 percent; the House passed $474.40 billion (CRS R49347). The Toxic Exposures Fund is $54.59 billion against $52.68 billion in FY2026, and medical community care is $39.73 billion against $34.00 billion (CRS R49347). The FY2028 advance appropriation request is $499.46 billion (CRS R49347).

National Security-State. The request is $35.5 billion net, down 29.1 percent; the House passed $47.4 billion, down 5.4 percent (CRS R48956). Both eliminate UN regular-budget funding. Rescissions are $2.29 billion in the request and $1.84 billion in the House bill (CRS R48956).

Transportation-HUD. The House committee bill totals $92.2 billion in discretionary funding against $102.9 billion in FY2026, the largest cut of the ten bills in Exhibit 96 (−10.4%) (CRS R49341). That percentage excludes $7.9 billion of IIJA transfers the House proposes to THUD accounts for FY2027; counting them would put the House level at $100.1 billion, 2.7 percent below FY2026 (derived; this study did not check whether the FY2026 level includes transfers) (CRS R49341). Housing voucher renewals are $35.45 billion against $34.96 billion (CRS R49341). IIJA authorizations are extended through December 11, 2026 (CRS IG10101).

Options and what each would change

A. Hold FY2026 rates for the year, or enact bills. A full-year continuing resolution holds FY2027 budget authority at about $1.701 trillion; the request and House bills are $174 billion and $190 billion higher (CBO cost estimate, August 5, 2026; CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026; CBO, House status report, July 2, 2026). The case for it is that a continuing resolution avoids a lapse, and the FY2026 cycle had three: October and November 2025; January 31 to February 2, 2026; and the Homeland Security lapse that began February 14, 2026, which ended April 30 for DHS except Border Patrol and ICE, with Border Patrol and ICE funding coming June 10 in P.L. 119-98 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026; CRS R49427). The case against is that flat rates cannot carry a defense request $251 billion above FY2026 or a nondefense request $136 billion below it, and the current continuing resolution already needs anomalies for the Disaster Relief Fund (up to $26.37 billion), WIC, the Census buildup and shipbuilding cost increases (CRS R49353; CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026).

B. Restore enforceable caps or agree a budget resolution with allocations. CBO scored the Fiscal Responsibility Act’s caps at $1,331.8 billion in outlay reductions over 2023 to 2033 against its May 2023 baseline, $245.4 billion of it from the FY2024 and FY2025 caps (CBO letter on the Fiscal Responsibility Act, May 30, 2023). The case for is that a cap fixes the topline before bill-by-bill decisions and sequestration gives it force. The case against is coverage: nonbase funding, which is emergency and other designated funding, was $226 billion in FY2025 and $103 billion in FY2026 and is $14 billion in the request, and the FY2027 continuing resolution carries $32.6 billion in disaster, program integrity and wildfire adjustments plus $1.5 billion of emergency funding (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026; CBO cost estimate, August 5, 2026).

C. Fund more defense through reconciliation. The request seeks $350 billion, scored by CBO at $335 billion of outlays over 2027 to 2036, and P.L. 119-21’s $156.2 billion is the precedent; the House resolution would let Armed Services add up to $60 billion (CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026; CRS IN12580; H.Con.Res. 113, as engrossed). The case for is that reconciliation needs only a simple Senate majority and gives multiyear availability, and shipbuilding and munitions received $29.2 billion and $25.4 billion in P.L. 119-21 (CRS IN12580). The case against is CBO’s April 30, 2026 finding that base-budget acquisition in the FY2026 request came in below expectations, so reconciliation money may replace base funds, and that enduring costs are uncertain because the funds are treated as a one-year increase (CBO, April 30, 2026). The funds also can be obligated only until September 30, 2029 (CRS IN12580).

D. Raise, suspend or repeal the debt limit. The limit is $41.104 trillion, set by the $5.0 trillion increase in P.L. 119-21 (CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, February 11, 2026; CRS R48611). The National Taxpayers Union (August 20, 2026) forecasts contact between February and July 2027 (central estimate May), more than $1 trillion of cash and extraordinary measures at contact, debt subject to the limit of about $39.7 trillion on August 10, 2026, and an X-date in February 2028 (Exhibit 97) (National Taxpayers Union, Projecting the Debt Limit, August 20, 2026). The two cases below come from sources of different dates and kinds, a 2026 Senate press release and a 2015 CRS report, so they are not a matched pair. The case for repeal is stated in a July 29, 2026 Senate release: the limit’s “only real function is to threaten an economic crisis” (U.S. Senate press release, July 29, 2026). CRS’s summary of the case for keeping the limit and raising or suspending it as needed is that it “imposes a form of fiscal accountability” by requiring a visible vote before borrowing can rise and gives Congress a check on the purse; the case against is that the 1974 budget process has superseded it and that it does little to change the policies that drive deficits (CRS RL31967). The forecast window puts contact 19 to 24 months after the July 4, 2025 increase (National Taxpayers Union, Projecting the Debt Limit, August 20, 2026).

E. Close trust fund gaps. For Social Security, the 2026 Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026) puts the 75-year deficit at 4.42 percent of taxable payroll and illustrates three ways to close it, each starting January 2026: raise the payroll tax rate from 12.40 to 16.65 percent, cut scheduled benefits 25.2 percent for all beneficiaries, or cut them 30.3 percent for people newly eligible (Social Security Trustees, 2026 Annual Report). CBO’s March 25, 2026 testimony shows an illustrative scenario for the OASI trust fund in which benefits are limited to payable amounts: a 7 percent cut in fiscal year 2032 and an average of 28 percent a year over fiscal years 2033 to 2036, $2.7 trillion over 2032 to 2036 before economic effects (CBO testimony, March 25, 2026). The case for tax increases is that they preserve scheduled benefits; the case against is the size, 4.25 percentage points added to a 12.40 percent rate (Social Security Trustees, 2026 Annual Report). The case for benefit changes is that they avoid new taxes; the case against is that they reduce retiree income, and a cut limited to new beneficiaries must be larger (30.3 percent against 25.2 percent) (Social Security Trustees, 2026 Annual Report). For the Highway Trust Fund, CBO’s June 2026 baseline shows the Mass Transit Account short in FY2027 and the Highway Account in FY2028 (CBO, Highway Trust Fund baseline, June 2026). It shows cumulative shortfalls of $221.4 billion in the Highway Account and $96.5 billion in the Mass Transit Account by FY2036 (Exhibit 98) (CBO, Highway Trust Fund baseline, June 2026). CBO’s July 9, 2026 estimate of the House committee bill (H.R. 8870) puts the net revenue from section 1129, which would require states to collect registration fees on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, at $12.4 billion over 2026 to 2036 (CBO, July 9, 2026).

F. Reduce discretionary spending. Three CBO options from December 2024, scored for 2025 to 2034 against baselines that predate February 2026, save $959 billion in outlays for a reduction in the Department of Defense’s annual budget, $339 billion for a reduction in selected nondefense discretionary spending and $21.5 billion for a cap on military basic pay increases (Exhibit 99) (CBO, Options for Reducing the Deficit, December 12, 2024; CBO, December 12, 2024; CBO, December 12, 2024). They are three of CBO’s options, not its full range, and their effective dates, October 2025 and January 2026, have passed (CBO, Options for Reducing the Deficit, December 12, 2024). The case for is lower deficits and interest costs. The case against is CBO’s description of effects: highway and transit grants and education grants for low-income children and children with disabilities would be most affected under the nondefense option, and the defense option could be implemented by reducing active-component personnel about 17 percent by 2034, against a request that raises defense budget authority 28 percent (CBO, Options for Reducing the Deficit, December 12, 2024; CBO, December 12, 2024; CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The options are not additive.

What is coming

Lame duck, November 2026 to January 2027. The midterm election is November 3 (2 U.S.C. 7). The continuing resolution, surface transportation extension, NFIP, TSCA fees, Defense Production Act and Veterans Affairs extenders end December 11; Highway Trust Fund expenditure authority runs through December 11, because the Internal Revenue Code allows expenditures before December 12; TANF, the Community Health Center Fund and the Medicare physician payment extenders end December 31 (P.L. 119-103, enrolled text; 26 U.S.C. 9503; CRS R44668; CRS R49126). The FY2027 NDAA passed the House 216–212 on July 22 and is stalled in the Senate after cloture on the motion to proceed failed 50–46 on July 14 (CRS IN12704). Statutory PAYGO’s end-of-session report follows adjournment; CRS reported in February 2026 that P.L. 119-37 had set the scorecards to zero, and this study did not check for later changes (CRS IN12564).

2027. The 120th Congress convenes January 3 (Constitution Annotated, Twentieth Amendment). The President’s FY2028 budget is due by the first Monday in February, February 1; the FY2027 budget arrived April 3, 2026 (31 U.S.C. 1105(a); CBO, analysis of the President’s 2027 budget, June 30, 2026). The sources used here give no release date for CBO’s next baseline. The debt limit window opens in February (National Taxpayers Union, Projecting the Debt Limit, August 20, 2026). FY2028 begins October 1, 2027 with SNAP benefit cost sharing, $8 billion of Medicaid DSH reductions and the end of the PDUFA, MDUFA, GDUFA and BsUFA user fee authorizations, whose related provisions cease January 31, 2028 (CRS R49126; CRS IN12723). Medicare telehealth flexibilities end December 31 (P.L. 119-75, enrolled text, Secs. 6209 and 6210).

2028. The National Taxpayers Union forecasts a prudential debt limit action date of January 1 and an X-date in February (National Taxpayers Union, Projecting the Debt Limit, August 20, 2026). The FAA authorizations run through FY2028, and the scheduled expiration of tire taxes and all but 4.3 cents of the motor fuel tax falls on September 30; CBO’s baseline assumes those taxes continue to be collected (CRS IF12791; CBO, The Status of the Highway Trust Fund in 2026, June 16, 2026). The general election is November 7 (2 U.S.C. 7; 3 U.S.C. 21). The tips, overtime, car loan interest and senior deductions end with tax year 2028 (IRS).

2029. The 121st Congress convenes January 3 and the presidential term ends January 20 (Constitution Annotated, Twentieth Amendment). The FY2030 budget is due by the first Monday in February, February 5 (31 U.S.C. 1105(a)). P.L. 119-21 defense funds can be obligated until September 30, the law’s ICE funds are available until that date, and P.L. 119-98 funds and NNSA funds are available through FY2029, which ends that day (CRS IN12580; GAO-26-108663, September 24, 2026; CRS R49427; CRS R48944).

2030 to 2031. The SALT deduction cap reverts to $10,000 in tax year 2030 (CRS R48611). Acute Hospital Care at Home waivers run through September 30, 2030 (P.L. 119-75, enrolled text, Secs. 6209 and 6210). Commodity program funding runs through September 30, 2031 (CRS R45210).

Beyond the window. The mandatory sequester ends after FY2032 (CRS R48880). The 2026 Trustees Reports, released June 9, 2026, project depletion of OASI in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78 percent of scheduled benefits payable, Medicare HI in the second quarter of 2033 and combined OASDI in the third quarter of 2034 (Social Security Trustees, 2026 Annual Report; 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, June 9, 2026). CBO projects OASI in fiscal year 2032 (CBO, September 17, 2026), combined OASDI in fiscal year 2033 (CBO testimony, March 25, 2026) and HI in 2040 (CBO, February 23, 2026) (Exhibit 100).