Forecast: debt limit reached between February and July 2027
Source. National Taxpayers Union, August 20, 2026
Method and data
Method. The green bar spans National Taxpayers Union's forecast window for reaching the $41.104 trillion limit (earliest 2027-02, latest 2027-07, each month drawn as a full month), the dark marker is its central estimate (2027-05) and the diamond is its central X-date estimate (2028-02), each plotted at mid-month.
| Forecaster | Forecast date | Event | Earliest | Central | Latest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Taxpayers Union | August 20, 2026 | Statutory limit ($41.104 trillion) reached | 2027-02 | 2027-05 | 2027-07 | Debt subject to limit about $39.7 trillion on Aug 10, 2026; Treasury cash plus extraordinary measures above $1 trillion at contact |
| National Taxpayers Union | August 20, 2026 | X-date | 2028-02 | Prudential action date Jan 1, 2028 with a $100 billion buffer; +$10 billion per month of deficits moves X-date to Jan 2028 |
