Study VIII · The Federal Dollars Series

Every Federal Job

Between January 2025 and September 2026 the United States shed federal civilian jobs, and this study follows every one.

16 min read · 10 exhibits

Between January 2025 and September 2026 the United States shed 322,400 federal civilian jobs outside the Postal Service — 13.4 percent of them, the largest fall in the civil service outside the decennial-census cycles since demobilization after the Second World War — and it did so almost entirely by attrition: a hiring freeze, a resignation offer paid through the end of the fiscal year, early retirements and, at the margin, layoffs. This study follows every one of those jobs: how many, when, which agencies, what kind of work, who left, where they lived and what it cost — and then asks what the government that remains is made of.

The record is unusually complete. The Office of Personnel Management now publishes a record-level snapshot of the civilian workforce for every month and every personnel action in it; the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts federal payroll jobs by state every month. Every figure here is from one of those two sources, from the award records already used in the Federal Dollars series, or from the source named beside it, and the sums are checked when the site is built. The two counts differ in coverage — BLS includes all three branches and the Postal Service; OPM’s file covers executive-branch civilians and runs about 100,000 below the BLS series outside the Postal Service — and move together.

BLS counted 2,083,300 federal civilian employees outside the Postal Service in September 2026 and 2,405,700 in January 2025: the fewest since early 2009 and, per resident, the fewest since 1940. OPM recorded 498,505 separations from January 2025 to July 2026, against 233,262 accessions; in calendar 2024, 224,946 separations and 278,050 accessions. 140,481 took the Deferred Resignation Program — paid leave, then separation by September 30 or December 31, 2025 — 96,401 of them separated in September 2025, the month of the first deadline. Layoffs by reduction in force, January 2025 to July 2026: 10,976. DC, Maryland and Virginia lost 83,500 federal jobs from January 2025 to August 2026, 26% of the national loss (83,500 of 327,000; BLS, all federal jobs, Postal Service included): Maryland −18.1%, DC −14.6%, Virginia −13.4%.

The regional companion, Every Federal Job in the Region, follows the cut in Washington, Maryland and Virginia, Exhibits 11 to 22.

Eighty-seven years of federal employment

The civil service grew with the country’s population for a generation after 1950, held near three million from the 1960s to the 1990s, and has been shrinking relative to the population ever since.

Exhibit 1

Per resident, the fewest federal civilian employees since 1940

Source. BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: all employees, federal government (CES9091000001) and federal except U.S. Postal Service (CES9091100001); BEA resident population (B230RC0A052NBEA) and Census monthly population (POPTHM). 1939–2026 (2026: January–September).

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Method. Annual averages of seasonally adjusted monthly values; 2026 is the January–September average, divided by the August 2026 monthly population (343,008 thousand). Population from BEA (annual). The CES counts payroll jobs at all federal civilian employers, including the Postal Service and the legislative and judicial branches; it does not count uniformed military or contractors. The bold line excludes the Postal Service.

Twenty-one months, month by month

Exhibit 2

Both counts stopped falling in early 2026

Source. BLS CES, federal except Postal Service (CES9091100001), seasonally adjusted, via FRED; OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots. January 2024 – September 2026 (BLS); OPM snapshots January 2024 – July 2026.

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Method. BLS: payroll jobs, federal except Postal Service, seasonally adjusted, thousands. OPM: headcount of executive-branch civilian employees in the status snapshot on the last day of each month, for the months whose files were retrieved. The two series differ in coverage — the CES includes the legislative and judicial branches and some agencies OPM’s file does not carry — so they are drawn as two panels, each on its own scale, sharing the months. Some Department of War components did not submit June and July 2026 data, so OPM’s June and July counts are incomplete.

Exhibit 3

Separations peaked in September 2025, the month of the first deferred-resignation deadline

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Dynamics: separations and accessions files, monthly. January 2024 – July 2026, by month processed.

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Method. Separations by personnel-action category in the month the action was processed: quits; retirements (voluntary, early-out and other); reductions in force; terminations; transfers out, other separations and deaths. The five bars sum to the month’s separations. Deferred resignations are not a sixth kind: OPM flags them (drp_indicator) across the kinds — mostly quits and retirements — so they are a column of their own, “of which”, and are never added to the bars. Accessions (new hires and transfers in) are the line, on the same scale. Mean pay is annualized basic pay of leavers whose pay OPM publishes.

What happened when

January 20, 2025. Presidential memorandum freezes civilian hiring (FR 2025-01905), with exemptions for immigration enforcement, national security, public safety and benefit delivery. Extended April 17 and again July 7 (through October 15, 2025; DCPD202500753); replaced on October 15 by EO 14356, which keeps the restrictions with an approval process.

January 28, 2025. “Fork in the Road” email offers deferred resignation: accept by February 6 (the offer closed February 12 after a court pause), stay on paid administrative leave, separate by September 30 (December 31 for those retiring between October 1 and December 31, as TIGTA reports for the IRS). OPM’s files record 140,481 takers across the program’s rounds (OPM’s dashboard: 139,963).

February 11, 2025. EO 14210 (“Workforce Optimization Initiative”): agencies to hire no more than one employee for every four who leave, and to plan reductions in force.

February–April 2025. Probationary employees terminated across agencies; courts order many reinstated. OPM’s separations file shows 3,460 terminations of employees with a year or less of service in those three months — far fewer than reported at the time, consistent with reinstatements (see What we could not verify).

July 8, 2025. Supreme Court stays the injunction that had blocked agency reductions in force (Trump v. AFGE, 24A1174). RIFs proceed: 10,976 recorded from January 2025 through July 2026, 4,493 at HHS, 3,831 at USAID, 1,012 at State, 760 at Education.

September 30, 2025. First deferred-resignation deadline: 96,401 separations processed in September. BLS counts 166,000 fewer federal jobs in October than in September (all federal jobs, Postal Service included).

October 1 – November 12, 2025. Government shutdown. At least 4,000 RIF notices issued during it, some 1,500 at the IRS (FEDweek; OPM CHCOC memorandum, November 13, 2025); the continuing resolution of November 12 rescinds them and restores back pay.

December 2025 – January 2026. Second exit: 41,563 retirements in two months, double the 20,380 of the same months a year earlier; of that period’s separations, 29,064 were deferred resignations.

February 5, 2026. OPM finalizes Schedule Policy/Career, which removes adverse-action protections from “policy-influencing” positions once an executive order places them in it; effective in March.

Spring 2026. Hiring resumes: 24,325 accessions in May 2026 against a trough of 4,889 in March 2025 and 29,098 in January 2024. The headcount stops falling in March 2026.

How the number fell. OPM’s file shows 498,505 separations and 233,262 accessions between January 2025 and July 2026, a net loss of 265,243. In calendar 2024 the same file shows 224,946 separations and 278,050 accessions — a workforce that was growing by about 50,000 a year. The reduction therefore came more from not replacing people than from people leaving faster: at an annual rate, separations rose by about 89,900 (314,845 a year, 498,505 over nineteen months, against 224,946) and accessions fell by about 130,700 (147,323 a year against 278,050). Of the 498,505 separations, 211,058 were quits, 182,420 retirements, 50,842 terminations and 10,976 reductions in force; 140,481 of them, mostly quits and retirements, were deferred resignations.

What the deferred resignation was. A separation agreed in advance and paid until it took effect: employees who accepted stayed on the payroll, on administrative leave, until September 30, 2025 or, if eligible to retire, December 31. The September wave was 96,401 people with a mean annualized basic pay of $104,412; the December and January waves, 29,064 people, were better paid — mean $144,400 and $150,432. Thirty-five percent of all takers were 60 or older (48,742 of 140,481); 25,764 had thirty or more years of service; 21,938 had two years or less.

What a reduction in force was not. The instrument the administration announced in February was the one it used least: 10,976 RIF separations in nineteen months, three-quarters of them at HHS and USAID. The hiring freeze and the resignation offer did the work.

Where it fell: agency by agency

Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security fell less than average: VA −7.0% and DHS −2.7%, against −12.1% for all agencies; the ones that collect revenue, run science, regulate and aid lost more.

Exhibit 4

Every department and agency with 500 or more employees shrank

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots (record counts). January 2020 – July 2026; compared January 2025 to May 2026.

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Method. Every department and agency with 500 or more employees in January 2025 (the last full snapshot before the change of administration), sorted by the percentage change to May 2026 — the last month before a change in the Defense Department’s reporting left some of its components missing from the June and July 2026 files. The Government Printing Office leaves the file after September 2025, a coverage change rather than separations; it is blank, not zero, and is not drawn. All agencies together: 2,304,585 to 2,025,993, −12.1%.

The pattern. Veterans Affairs lost 7.0% and Homeland Security 2.7%; Social Security 13.7%. Treasury lost 27.8% — the IRS alone went from 101,826 to 72,647 employees, 28.7% — and Health and Human Services 21.6%, with NIH 23.1%, CDC 27.8% and FDA 22.4%. Education lost 44.7%, the Small Business Administration 40.5%, the General Services Administration 37.7%, the EPA 25.8%, NASA 22.8%, Energy 24.0%. USAID went from 4,969 to 236.

The exceptions. Immigration and Customs Enforcement grew from 20,594 to 29,219 (+41.9%); Customs and Border Protection +4.4%; the Secret Service +3.5%. The National Park Service and the Forest Service show small increases from January to May because their seasonal workforces are hired in spring; against September 2024 both are down.

Defense. The civilian Defense Department — 774,572 people in January 2025, a third of the whole file (774,572 of 2,304,585) — lost 11.6% to May 2026: Army 14.9% (221,195 to 188,336), Navy 9.4% (221,292 to 200,505) and Air Force 12.6% (173,193 to 151,445), in OPM’s files by agency. The Navy figure includes the recode of its installations command; without it the Navy lost 11.3%. Its June and July figures are incomplete and are not used here.

The components that moved most

Exhibit 5

The IRS lost the most employees of any component; ICE gained the most

Component	Department or agency	Jan 2025	May 2026	Change	%
Internal Revenue Service	Treasury	101,826	72,647	−29,179	−28.7
Veterans Health Administration	Veterans Affairs	424,336	399,105	−25,231	−5.9
Social Security Administration	Social Security Administration	57,384	49,536	−7,848	−13.7
Air Force Materiel Command	Air Force	71,948	64,516	−7,432	−10.3
Transportation Security Administration	Homeland Security	66,092	60,311	−5,781	−8.7
Federal Emergency Management Agency	Homeland Security	26,055	20,382	−5,673	−21.8
National Institutes of Health	Health and Human Services	21,512	16,544	−4,968	−23.1
Veterans Benefits Administration	Veterans Affairs	34,592	29,685	−4,907	−14.2
U.S. Agency for International Development	USAID	4,969	236	−4,733	−95.3
Food and Drug Administration	Health and Human Services	20,967	16,261	−4,706	−22.4
Naval Facilities Engineering Command	Navy	18,189	13,681	−4,508	−24.8
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers	Army	38,713	34,275	−4,438	−11.5
Environmental Protection Agency	Environmental Protection Agency	16,931	12,557	−4,374	−25.8
Military Treatment Facilities under DHA	Defense	44,859	40,771	−4,088	−9.1
Naval Sea Systems Command	Navy	37,363	33,308	−4,055	−10.9
Bureau of Land Management	Interior	9,742	5,732	−4,010	−41.2
Department of Energy	Energy	16,005	12,020	−3,985	−24.9
Army National Guard Units	Army	27,913	24,057	−3,856	−13.8
United States Army Installation Management Command	Army	23,322	19,764	−3,558	−15.3
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention	Health and Human Services	12,763	9,218	−3,545	−27.8
Small Business Administration	Small Business Administration	8,562	5,097	−3,465	−40.5
Naval Air Systems Command	Navy	30,033	26,590	−3,443	−11.5
Department of State	State	14,478	11,370	−3,108	−21.5
Natural Resources Conservation Service	Agriculture	11,861	8,867	−2,994	−25.2
United States Army Futures Command	Army	16,474	13,615	−2,859	−17.4
U.S. Census Bureau	Commerce	13,306	10,683	−2,623	−19.7
Citizenship and Immigration Services	Homeland Security	22,792	20,170	−2,622	−11.5
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration	Commerce	12,407	9,824	−2,583	−20.8
Geological Survey	Interior	8,430	5,877	−2,553	−30.3
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service	Interior	8,742	6,263	−2,479	−28.4
Bureau of Prisons/Federal Prison System	Justice	36,058	33,614	−2,444	−6.8
Public Buildings Service	General Services Administration	5,602	3,175	−2,427	−43.3
Agricultural Research Service	Agriculture	7,109	4,755	−2,354	−33.1
Air National Guard Units	Air Force	14,835	12,482	−2,353	−15.9
Federal Bureau of Investigation	Justice	37,107	34,867	−2,240	−6
Bureau of Reclamation	Interior	5,808	3,612	−2,196	−37.8
Air Education and Training Command	Air Force	15,121	12,928	−2,193	−14.5
U.S. Marine Corps	Navy	18,236	16,205	−2,031	−11.1
United States Fleet Forces Command	Navy	35,129	33,154	−1,975	−5.6
Offices, Boards and Divisions	Justice	7,192	5,259	−1,933	−26.9
Air Combat Command	Air Force	12,409	10,492	−1,917	−15.4
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service	Agriculture	8,672	6,795	−1,877	−21.6
Federal Aviation Administration	Transportation	46,366	44,492	−1,874	−4
Rural Development	Agriculture	4,873	3,031	−1,842	−37.8
Defense Human Resources Activity	Defense	2,860	1,026	−1,834	−64.1
U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command	Army	10,912	9,179	−1,733	−15.9
Indian Health Service	Health and Human Services	14,035	12,351	−1,684	−12
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Information and Technology	Veterans Affairs	8,490	6,836	−1,654	−19.5
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation	Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation	6,548	5,046	−1,502	−22.9
Commander, Naval Information Warfare Systems Command (NAVWARSYSCOM)	Navy	10,977	9,484	−1,493	−13.6
Executive Office for U.S. Attorneys and the Offices of the U.S. Attorneys	Justice	11,686	10,197	−1,489	−12.7
Federal Acquisition Service	General Services Administration	4,753	3,277	−1,476	−31.1
DHS Headquarters	Homeland Security	5,651	4,195	−1,456	−25.8
Defense Finance and Accounting Service	Defense	10,846	9,459	−1,387	−12.8
Bureau of the Fiscal Service	Treasury	3,299	1,941	−1,358	−41.2
U.S. Army Tank-Automotive and Armament Command (TACOM)	Army	10,043	8,803	−1,240	−12.3
Defense Commissary Agency	Defense	11,356	10,136	−1,220	−10.7
Headquarters, Air Force Reserve Command	Air Force	9,934	8,764	−1,170	−11.8
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services	Health and Human Services	6,735	5,569	−1,166	−17.3
U.S. Army Civilian Human Resources Agency	Army	4,388	3,222	−1,166	−26.6
Naval Supply Systems Command	Navy	7,249	6,090	−1,159	−16
Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency	Homeland Security	3,379	2,231	−1,148	−34
Patent and Trademark Office	Commerce	14,537	13,438	−1,099	−7.6
Defense Contract Management Agency	Defense	9,738	8,653	−1,085	−11.1
Indian Affairs	Interior	3,826	2,742	−1,084	−28.3
U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command	Army	6,907	5,826	−1,081	−15.7
Office of Personnel Management	Office of Personnel Management	3,055	1,977	−1,078	−35.3
Goddard Space Flight Center	NASA	3,085	2,024	−1,061	−34.4
Health Resources and Services Administration	Health and Human Services	2,714	1,668	−1,046	−38.5
U.S. Army Acquisition Support Center	Army	5,601	4,558	−1,043	−18.6
Office of General Counsel	Housing and Urban Development	2,947	1,906	−1,041	−35.3
U.S. Army Joint Munitions Command	Army	5,179	4,151	−1,028	−19.8
Federal Highway Administration	Transportation	3,001	1,995	−1,006	−33.5
Naval Education and Training Command	Navy	4,650	3,645	−1,005	−21.6
Food Safety and Inspection Service	Agriculture	8,310	7,316	−994	−12
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency	Treasury	3,614	2,643	−971	−26.9
U.S. Coast Guard	Homeland Security	9,685	8,752	−933	−9.6
Air Mobility Command	Air Force	7,626	6,732	−894	−11.7
Securities and Exchange Commission	Securities and Exchange Commission	4,812	3,941	−871	−18.1
United States Army Cyber Command	Army	4,616	3,758	−858	−18.6
Administration for Children and Families	Health and Human Services	2,311	1,511	−800	−34.6
U.S. Army Contracting Command	Army	5,227	4,429	−798	−15.3
Directorate for Administrations, Logistics, and Operations (DALO)	Navy	5,525	4,748	−777	−14.1
National Institute of Standards and Technology	Commerce	3,920	3,154	−766	−19.5
Agricultural Marketing Service	Agriculture	4,478	3,715	−763	−17
Defense Logistics Agency	Defense	23,775	23,031	−744	−3.1
Defense Information Systems Agency	Defense	6,870	6,159	−711	−10.3
Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency	Defense	5,667	4,975	−692	−12.2
Pacific Air Forces	Air Force	3,779	3,089	−690	−18.3
U.S. Army Reserve Command	Army	8,336	7,664	−672	−8.1
Air Force Global Strike Command	Air Force	4,117	3,485	−632	−15.4
U.S. Army Medical Command	Army	3,351	2,721	−630	−18.8
U.S. Pacific Fleet, Commander in Chief	Navy	25,959	25,333	−626	−2.4
Defense Health Agency	Defense	6,227	5,608	−619	−9.9
U.S. Army Communications Electronics Command	Army	5,619	5,013	−606	−10.8
U.S. Army Sustainment Command	Army	4,364	3,766	−598	−13.7
Defense Contract Audit Agency	Defense	3,814	3,217	−597	−15.7
U.S. Army Recruiting Command and U.S. Army Cadet Command	Army	2,673	2,129	−544	−20.4
Farm Service Agency	Agriculture	3,284	2,752	−532	−16.2
National Archives and Records Administration	National Archives	2,888	2,358	−530	−18.4
Bureau of Naval Personnel	Navy	4,317	3,790	−527	−12.2
Headquarters, NASA	NASA	2,141	1,631	−510	−23.8
Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response	Health and Human Services	5,057	4,549	−508	−10
Office of the Secretary of Health and Human Services	Health and Human Services	3,068	2,576	−492	−16
Executive Office for Immigration Review	Justice	2,685	2,203	−482	−18
Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center	NASA	3,147	2,667	−480	−15.3
U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command	Army	3,807	3,333	−474	−12.5
Office of Naval Research	Navy	3,057	2,586	−471	−15.4
Nuclear Regulatory Commission	Nuclear Regulatory Commission	2,926	2,457	−469	−16
Bureau of Labor Statistics	Labor	2,285	1,846	−439	−19.2
Missile Defense Agency	Defense	2,907	2,491	−416	−14.3
Drug Enforcement Administration	Justice	8,882	8,469	−413	−4.6
HQ USAF and Support Elements	Air Force	2,529	2,127	−402	−15.9
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission	Equal Employment Opportunity Commission	2,075	1,678	−397	−19.1
Air Force Civilian Career Training	Air Force	3,076	2,684	−392	−12.7
U.S. Army Forces Command	Army	2,569	2,182	−387	−15.1
George C. Marshall Space Flight Center	NASA	2,290	1,903	−387	−16.9
John F. Kennedy Space Center	NASA	2,076	1,693	−383	−18.4
U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command	Army	3,427	3,105	−322	−9.4
Immediate Office of the Chief of Naval Operations	Navy	2,238	1,917	−321	−14.3
Space Systems Command	Air Force	2,871	2,561	−310	−10.8
Bureau of Indian Education	Interior	3,099	2,791	−308	−9.9
National Cemetery Administration	Veterans Affairs	2,429	2,125	−304	−12.5
United States Space Force	Air Force	2,439	2,137	−302	−12.4
U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command	Army	2,589	2,290	−299	−11.5
Office of the Secretary of Defense	Defense	2,720	2,439	−281	−10.3
Joint Activities	Army	2,759	2,492	−267	−9.7
Smithsonian Institution (Except Units Administered under Separate Boards of Trustees)	Smithsonian Institution	3,658	3,439	−219	−6
Naval Medical Command	Navy	2,016	1,803	−213	−10.6
U.S. Marshals Service	Justice	5,532	5,366	−166	−3
Departmental Offices	Treasury	2,622	2,880	258	9.8
National Park Service	Interior	17,904	18,179	275	1.5
U.S. Secret Service	Homeland Security	8,142	8,431	289	3.5
Forest Service	Agriculture	31,257	33,026	1,769	5.7
Customs and Border Protection	Homeland Security	66,502	69,399	2,897	4.4
Office of the Secretary of the Interior	Interior	3,037	11,503	8,466	278.8
Immigration and Customs Enforcement	Homeland Security	20,594	29,219	8,625	41.9

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, by agency and agency sub-element. January 2025 to May 2026.

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Method. Agency sub-elements with 2,000 or more employees in January 2025, sorted by change to May 2026. Three components that go to zero because OPM recoded them are omitted: Commander, Navy Installations (10,917 in January 2025), Department of Defense Education Activity (14,241 in January 2025), Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (5,190 in January 2025); Interior’s Office of the Secretary grows from 3,037 to 11,503 for the same reason. The department totals absorb those moves and are the safer comparison.

Who left, and what the government that remains is made of

The reduction was not uniform. It took the newest and the oldest, the administrators and the scientists, and the career executives — and it left a workforce with a higher share of supervisors and more political appointees than it started with.

Exhibit 6

The newest employees fell by more than half; political appointees rose fourfold

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, January 2025 and May 2026. January 2025 and May 2026.

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Method. Every employee in OPM’s file, January 2025 against May 2026, by age, length of service, occupational group (groups with 20,000 or more employees, sorted by change), OPM’s PATCO kind of work, supervisory status, appointment type, annualized basic pay and OPM’s STEM and health flags. Service bins are right-closed: “a year or less” counts service up to and including one year. Counts by age, tenure, occupation and status are complete; pay bands cover only the published records — pay is published for about 54% of records, the rest redacted for employees in sensitive positions, concentrated in Defense, Homeland Security and Justice. Each panel has its own scale.

Exhibit 7

Deferred resignations by age: the largest group was 60 to 64

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Dynamics: separations files, drp_indicator. January 2025 – July 2026, all rounds.

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Method. Separation actions OPM flags as the Deferred Resignation Program, January 2025 to July 2026, by age band at separation. The 140,481 compares with OPM’s published 139,963 (the files are revised as agencies finish processing). 48,742 (34.7%) were 60 or older.

The federal workforce lost 59% of its employees with two years or less of service (384,603 to 158,767) and 19% of those under thirty (202,514 to 164,369), while the count of career Senior Executives fell from 8,067 to 5,767 and the count of non-career SES and Schedule C political appointees rose from 646 to 2,849. The share of employees in OPM’s three supervisory categories, set out at the end of The argument, went from 13.9% in January 2025 to 14.3% in May 2026.

By occupation. The administrative category — contracting, human resources, budget, program management — fell 16.8%; the professional category (engineers, scientists, lawyers, doctors) 11.9%; clerical 5.8% and technical 5.5%. Among occupational groups the deepest cuts were in information and arts, general administration and clerical, accounting and budget, business and industry, human resources (18.9%), information technology (17.5%) and legal (17.3%); the physical sciences lost 16.7% and engineering 14.1%. The investigation group — the FBI, ICE, CBP, the Secret Service, the Marshals — was flat (−0.1%), and the medical group lost 5.6%. STEM occupations fell 15.9%; health occupations 6.4%.

By pay. Mean annualized basic pay among employees whose pay is published rose from $115,279 to $117,338, because the people who left were paid a little less than the people who stayed: the September deferred-resignation wave averaged $104,412, and the under-$60,000 bands shrank fastest. The DRP’s later waves averaged $144,400–$150,432.

By tenure. Employees with a year or less of service fell from 201,755 to 75,707 and those with over one to two years from 182,848 to 83,060 — the probationary cohort, which a hiring freeze stops replenishing and which the terminations and the resignation offer thinned. Employees with over 25 to 30 years rose from 91,782 to 112,994, not because anyone was hired but because the cohort aged into the bracket while those with over 30 left: that bracket fell 17.6%.

By status. Career-conditional appointments (the first years of a competitive-service career) fell 36.8%. Career SES fell 28.5%; non-career SES rose from 203 to 831 and Schedule C from 443 to 2,018. Veterans held their share (27.8% to 27.6%: 639,997 of 2,304,585 and 558,360 of 2,025,993). The education mix did not move: 4.3% with doctorates before and after (98,093 and 86,167).

Where they lived

Every state lost federal jobs; the loss ranged from −2.9% (Vermont) to −18.1% (Maryland). Measured against all jobs in the state, nowhere else comes close to the District of Columbia, where federal jobs were a quarter of all employment and the loss was 3.7% of every job in the city.

Exhibit 8

The largest falls were in Maryland, the District and Alaska

Source. BLS State and Metro Area Current Employment Statistics via FRED: federal government employment by state, seasonally adjusted, and total nonfarm employment by state. January 2025 to August 2026.

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Method. Federal government payroll jobs by state, seasonally adjusted, thousands, January 2025 against August 2026, where the job is rather than where the worker lives. Loss as % of all jobs divides the change by the state’s total nonfarm employment in January 2025; federal share is federal jobs over total nonfarm, January 2025. Tiles are shaded in three bins; a value on a break falls in the bin above it (Wisconsin’s 8.0 is in 8%–10%); the table, sorted by the percentage fall, gives every value. State estimates are made separately and need not sum to the national figure. All jobs are total nonfarm employment as the state series carry it, rounded to the thousand (the District’s is 765.5 thousand in BLS’s DCNA).

Washington, Maryland and Virginia

Exhibit 9

In the region, federal jobs stepped down in October 2025 and again in January 2026

Source. BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: federal government employment, District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia (seasonally adjusted) and the Washington–Arlington–Alexandria metropolitan area (SMU11479009091000001, not seasonally adjusted). January 2019 – August 2026.

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Method. Federal government employment, thousands. The three jurisdictions are whole states, seasonally adjusted; the metropolitan area is not seasonally adjusted, because BLS publishes no adjusted federal series for it. The metropolitan area and the three jurisdictions overlap and are not additive.

The region’s share. The three jurisdictions had 549.9k federal jobs in January 2025 and 466.4k in August 2026, a loss of 83.5k — 26% of the national decline (83.5k of 327k; BLS, all federal jobs, Postal Service included), from three jurisdictions with 4.6% of the national population (15.8 million of 341.8 million; Census Bureau, Vintage 2025, July 1, 2025). The Washington metropolitan area alone went from 375.8k to 311.9k federal jobs (−17.0%). Maryland’s −18.1% is the largest fall of any state; the District’s −14.6% removed 3.7% of all jobs in the city (28.0k of 765.5k in January 2025), where federal employment is 25.1% of the total.

Exhibit 10

Of the region’s large duty-station counties, only Alexandria gained

County	Jan 2020	Sep 2024	Jan 2025	Sep 2025	May 2026	Change	%
District of Columbia, DC	129,699	123,552	121,033	114,290	96,565	−24,468	−20.2
Montgomery, MD	41,583	42,961	43,211	35,318	33,061	−10,150	−23.5
Prince George’s, MD	18,755	22,654	22,601	20,585	16,742	−5,859	−25.9
Baltimore, MD	18,784	19,677	19,623	17,592	16,364	−3,259	−16.6
Fairfax, VA	4,268	9,793	10,950	9,161	7,762	−3,188	−29.1
Richmond, VA	4,938	5,568	5,536	5,424	5,053	−483	−8.7
Alexandria, VA	9,941	5,024	4,906	5,525	7,671	2,765	56.4
Arlington, VA	6,464	4,299	4,313	3,509	2,752	−1,561	−36.2
Hampton, VA	4,165	4,362	4,245	4,343	3,809	−436	−10.3
Anne Arundel, MD	2,066	3,974	3,980	3,119	2,753	−1,227	−30.8
Loudoun, VA	2,030	3,300	3,378	2,804	2,375	−1,003	−29.7
Berkeley, WV	2,696	3,105	3,087	2,900	2,722	−365	−11.8
Frederick, MD	1,257	2,490	2,536	2,007	1,707	−829	−32.7
Wood, WV	2,307	2,084	2,071	2,071	1,697	−374	−18.1
Salem, VA	2,085	1,972	1,973	1,935	1,861	−112	−5.7
Prince William, VA	377	1,913	1,959	1,200	860	−1,099	−56.1
Howard, MD	278	1,607	1,864	1,254	1,039	−825	−44.3
Jefferson, WV	1,377	1,702	1,719	1,632	1,318	−401	−23.3
Raleigh, WV	1,396	1,627	1,600	1,546	1,411	−189	−11.8
Wayne, WV	1,388	1,604	1,595	1,540	1,485	−110	−6.9
Charles, MD	105	1,527	1,594	813	549	−1,045	−65.6
Winchester, VA	1,198	1,378	1,456	1,378	1,209	−247	−17

Source. OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, duty-station county (published records only). January 2020 – May 2026.

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Method. The 22 duty-station counties and independent cities in the District, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia with the most employees in January 2025. OPM redacts location for employees in sensitive positions — about 46% of records, concentrated in Defense, Homeland Security and Justice — so these counts cover only the records with a published location and understate every county.

By county. In OPM’s file, where duty stations are published, employees stationed in the District fell from 121,033 to 96,565; Montgomery County from 43,211 to 33,061; Prince George’s from 22,601 to 16,742; Fairfax from 10,950 to 7,762. Alexandria rose from 4,906 to 7,671, which looks like a relocation of duty stations rather than hiring. These counts cover only the records with a published location — about half — so they understate every county.

Why it concentrates here. Headquarters staff, policy, legal, IT, human resources and budget offices — the occupations that fell most — are disproportionately in the capital region; field-delivered work (VA hospitals, border stations, air traffic control, prisons) is spread across the country and was cut least. The contract side moved less: federal contract obligations recorded to Virginia were $120.6B in FY2025 and $110.2B in FY2026 as reported by October 3, 2026 (preliminary); to Maryland $39.7B and $35.1B; to DC $31.4B and $30.8B.

What it cost and what it saves

Federal personnel was $865.3B in FY2025 gross outlays — pay, civilian benefits and benefits for former personnel (object classes 11–13); $681.7B of it reached federal employees and retirees directly. Mean annualized basic pay of federal employees whose pay OPM publishes was $117,338 in May 2026 ($115,279 in January 2025; $77,730 in March 2010).

The arithmetic of the resignation offer. Employees who accepted in February were paid for about eight months without working; those in the later rounds for a few. Public Citizen estimated the deferred-resignation payments at $11.1–15.1 billion in pay and benefits, January 2025 through March 2026; OPM says the reductions save “at least $20 billion a year” (both as reported by FEDmanager). The 278,592 fewer employees on the payroll in May 2026 than in January 2025 come to $30.6 billion a year in basic pay (278,592 × $109,870, the mean annualized basic pay of those who left over the same months, January 2025 to May 2026, OPM published records, weighted by each month’s separations), before any of the work is back-filled or contracted out.

The contracts. Federal contract obligations recorded to the states and DC were $695.5B in FY2024, $739.6B in FY2025 and $679.1B in FY2026 as reported by October 3, 2026 — a preliminary figure that will rise as agencies report their fourth quarter. The contractor workforce is not in any of these files; the ledger’s “contracts, services and supplies” line was $1,101.0B in FY2025.

The ledger’s view. In Part Two of Study V, federal personnel was $865.3B of $9,811.5B gross outlays: $89.5B of military pay and allowances and $45.9B of civilian Defense pay in the largest lines, $109.4B to retired civil servants, $80.5B to military retirees, and the Military Retirement Fund and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund accruals of $154.0B and $51.6B, which are transfers between federal accounts. A one-eighth cut in civilian headcount does not cut that line by one-eighth: retirees’ annuities rise as the retirement wave arrives, the accruals follow pay, and the pay of those who stayed is higher than the pay of those who left.

Per resident. At 6.07 federal civilian employees (outside the Postal Service) per thousand residents in September 2026 (2,083,300 ÷ 343.0 million, the August 2026 population), the United States now has fewer than at any time since 1940. In 1990 it had 9.47; in 2010, 7.48; in January 2025, 7.05 (2,405,700 ÷ 341.3 million).

The argument

The case for: a government that had grown past its mission was brought back to size. The civilian workforce reached 2,313,216 in September 2024, the largest of the twenty-one OPM snapshots retrieved back to March 2010, after growing by 223,850 since January 2019. The reduction returned it to its size of 2010. Per resident the federal workforce has been shrinking for sixty years, and the country is served by 7.8 federal employees per thousand people, Postal Service included (2,682,000 in September 2026 ÷ 343.0 million, the August 2026 population), against 12.8 in 1990.

It was done without mass layoffs: 10,976 reductions in force out of 498,505 separations. Nearly four-fifths of those who left chose to — 211,058 quits and 182,420 retirements (393,478 of 498,505), among them nearly all of the 140,481 deferred resignations, whom a program paid to the end of the fiscal year (139,908 were quits or retirements). The benefit-paying agencies were protected by design — the hiring-freeze memorandum says nothing in it shall adversely impact Social Security, Medicare or veterans’ benefits — and Veterans Affairs, the largest civilian department after Defense, lost 7.0% and Homeland Security 2.7%.

The annual basic pay of the 278,592 fewer employees is $30.6 billion (278,592 × $109,870), before any back-filling; OPM puts the saving at “at least $20 billion a year”. Hiring has resumed under a four-for-one rule that forces agencies to decide what work matters, with 24,325 accessions in May 2026 alone.

The case against: a reduction in capacity, concentrated where the government earns, knows and checks. The cuts did not fall where the government is large; they fell where it is expert. Treasury lost 27.8% and the IRS 28.7% — the agency that collects the revenue — while the enforcement agencies grew. HHS lost 21.6%, with NIH 23.1%, CDC 27.8% and FDA 22.4%; the EPA 25.8%; NASA 22.8%; the physical sciences 16.7% and STEM occupations 15.9% across the government.

It removed the two ends of the career: 59% of employees with two years’ service or less (384,603 to 158,767) and 19% of those under thirty (202,514 to 164,369) are gone; and 48,742 of the deferred resignations were people aged 60 or over, and 25,764 had thirty or more years of service. The workforce that remains is more supervisory (13.9% in January 2025 to 14.3% in May 2026, in the three categories set out below) and more political (646 to 2,849 non-career SES and Schedule C), with 28.5% fewer career executives, and a rule in force since March 2026 lets positions be moved, by executive order, into a schedule without the protections the rest of the civil service keeps; OPM’s May 2026 file shows none moved yet.

And the saving is smaller than the headcount: the people who left were paid less than those who stayed, retirees draw annuities from the same ledger line, contract obligations did not fall in FY2025, and at least ten agencies, among them the Labor Department, HHS and the IRS, later rehired people they paid to leave (Public Citizen, as reported by FEDmanager).

What the data supports is the second reading with the first’s arithmetic: the reduction was real and largely voluntary, and it was not a reduction in bureaucracy. It was a reduction in the government’s revenue, science and regulatory capacity, achieved by emptying the entry ranks and the senior ranks at once, while the enforcement agencies and the political layer grew and the supervisory share rose: OPM’s three supervisory categories — supervisor or manager (270,188), supervisor (CSRA) (31,637) and management official (CSRA) (17,564) — held 319,389 of 2,304,585 employees in January 2025 (13.9%) and 290,471 of 2,025,993 in May 2026 (14.3%), though their number fell 9.1%. Whether that is the government the country wants is a political question; what kind of government it is, is now a matter of record.

Where this joins the Federal Dollars series

The $865.3B personnel line in the Interactive Map of Federal Dollars is the money these jobs are paid from; its sub-groups — serving military, civilian Defense employees, health agencies’ staff, retired civil servants, military retirees — can be traced there back to the taxes that fund them. Federal Dollars by State, Over Time shows the contract and benefit dollars recorded to each state; this study adds the jobs.

What we could not verify

The probationary terminations. Agencies terminated probationary employees in February and March 2025, and courts ordered many reinstated. OPM’s separations files for February–April 2025 record 3,460 terminations of employees with a year or less of service, which cannot be reconciled with the reported scale; either the actions were reversed before the files were cut or they were coded differently. We did not obtain agency-level reporting to resolve it.
Component recodings. Several sub-elements appear to go to zero or to multiply between snapshots (the Defense schools, Navy installations, ATF, Interior’s Office of the Secretary); these are reorganizations of reporting rather than separations, and the component table should be read with the department totals.
Defense in June and July 2026. OPM states that some Department of War components did not submit June and July 2026 data; those months are not used for Defense or for government-wide comparisons.
Rehiring. Reports that agencies rehired employees who took the deferred resignation (the Labor Department, HHS and the IRS are named in Public Citizen’s analysis) are not identifiable in the aggregates we kept; the accessions files would allow it and we did not do it.
Contractors. No public file counts federal contractor employees. Contract obligations are shown instead, and the FY2026 figure is incomplete.
OPM’s own savings claim. “At least $20 billion a year” is a statement to Bloomberg Law reported by FEDmanager; we did not find the computation.
The ledger’s sub-lines. The $681.7B reaching employees and retirees, and the $89.5B, $45.9B, $109.4B, $80.5B, $154.0B and $51.6B lines, are Study V’s mapping of accounts to recipients and were not re-derived here; the totals ($865.3B of $9,811.5B, and $1,101.0B of contracts, services and supplies) were reproduced within $0.6B from USAspending’s FY2025 object-class outlays.
The January 2026 deferred-resignation pay. The $150,432 mean rests on the 3,656 of 13,584 records whose pay OPM publishes.

Sources

Corrections

The fall of 322,400 is the largest in the civil service outside the decennial-census cycles since demobilization after the Second World War; the 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Census unwinds were larger.
Reductions in force from January 2025 to July 2026 are 10,976, not 11,022, which included 46 from 2024.
Deferred resignations are a subset of the quits and retirements, not a separate kind of separation added to them.
Army, Navy and Air Force civilian falls are 14.9%, 9.4% and 12.6%, not 14.3%, 15.5% and 12.4%.
The 96,401 deferred resignations separated in September 2025, the month of the first deadline, not on one day.
The firm’s own estimate of the deferred-resignation offer’s cost and payback is withdrawn.
The workforce is the fewest since early 2009, not since 2008, and the record holds twenty-one OPM snapshots, not eighteen.
The reduction came more from not replacing people than from people leaving faster, not “in roughly equal measure”.
Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security fell less than average (−7.0% and −2.7%, against −12.1% for all agencies), and benefit-paying agencies were not protected (Social Security lost 13.7%); the VA is the largest civilian department after Defense, not the largest civilian employer.
The supervisory share rose, not the supervisory layer: the number of supervisors and managers fell 9.1%.

Data for every exhibit: download (CSV)

Cite this study

Higgins Strategy. “Every Federal Job” Study VIII, The Federal Dollars Series. October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/studies/every-federal-job/

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  author      = {{Higgins Strategy}},
  title       = {{Every Federal Job}},
  institution = {Higgins Strategy},
  type        = {Study},
  number      = {VIII},
  series      = {The Federal Dollars Series},
  year        = {2026},
  url         = {https://higginsstrategy.com/studies/every-federal-job/},
  month       = oct
}

Next: Study VIII, Every Federal Job in the Region

Every Federal Job

Eighty-seven years of federal employment

Twenty-one months, month by month

What happened when

Where it fell: agency by agency

The components that moved most

Who left, and what the government that remains is made of

Where they lived

Washington, Maryland and Virginia

What it cost and what it saves

The argument

Where this joins the Federal Dollars series

What we could not verify

Sources

Read next