Higgins Strategy

From Study VIII, Exhibit 2

Both counts stopped falling in early 2026

Source. BLS CES, federal except Postal Service (CES9091100001), seasonally adjusted, via FRED; OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots. January 2024 – September 2026 (BLS); OPM snapshots January 2024 – July 2026.

Method and data

Method. BLS: payroll jobs, federal except Postal Service, seasonally adjusted, thousands. OPM: headcount of executive-branch civilian employees in the status snapshot on the last day of each month, for the months whose files were retrieved. The two series differ in coverage — the CES includes the legislative and judicial branches and some agencies OPM’s file does not carry — so they are drawn as two panels, each on its own scale, sharing the months. Some Department of War components did not submit June and July 2026 data, so OPM’s June and July counts are incomplete.

MonthBLS, except Postal (thousands)BLS, all federal (thousands)OPM headcount
January 20242,365.72,9712,264,960
February 20242,373.32,980
March 20242,3812,989
April 20242,385.72,992
May 20242,392.13,001
June 20242,3963,005
July 20242,401.53,007
August 20242,4053,011
September 20242,406.63,0122,313,216
October 20242,408.73,013
November 20242,4073,009
December 20242,410.83,009
January 20252,405.73,0102,304,585
February 20252,397.12,997
March 20252,3902,9882,289,192
April 20252,376.92,976
May 20252,360.22,9522,255,056
June 20252,3512,944
July 20252,339.22,9352,224,444
August 20252,323.52,916
September 20252,321.52,9142,190,219
October 20252,156.82,7482,097,534
November 20252,1402,733
December 20252,127.62,7222,074,649
January 20262,090.32,6852,035,344
February 20262,089.42,689
March 20262,082.72,6822,023,318
April 20262,082.52,681
May 20262,082.62,6852,025,993
June 20262,082.32,685
July 20262,083.52,6862,020,230
August 20262,082.62,683
September 20262,083.32,682

Download 08-federal-employment-monthly-2024-2026.csv

Download SVG · CSV. Data and chart licensed CC BY 4.0.

Higgins Strategy. “Both counts stopped falling in early 2026” Exhibit 2, Every Federal Job (Study VIII). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/08-federal-employment-monthly-2024-2026/