Source. OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 7.1, 1940–2025; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 25, 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1, saved by hand from cbo.gov, 2026–2056.

Method and data

Method. Federal debt held by the public and gross federal debt as percentages of GDP, from OMB Table 7.1 for 1940–2025 and CBO’s extended baseline for 2026–2056: current law as of the FY2026 baseline, no recessions, no policy change. The 1946 peak was 106.1% of GDP held by the public; CBO’s path is 105.8% in 2029 and 107.7% in 2030. The Federal Reserve’s holdings (OMB Table 7.1) are in the CSV.

Fiscal year	Basis	Held by the public (% of GDP)	Gross federal debt (% of GDP)
1940	OMB	43.6	51.6
1941	OMB	41.5	49.5
1942	OMB	45.9	53.6
1943	OMB	69.2	77.3
1944	OMB	86.4	95.5
1945	OMB	103.9	114.9
1946	OMB	106.1	118.9
1947	OMB	93.9	107.6
1948	OMB	82.6	96.2
1949	OMB	77.5	91.4
1950	OMB	78.6	92.2
1951	OMB	65.5	78.1
1952	OMB	60.1	72.6
1953	OMB	57.2	69.6
1954	OMB	58	70
1955	OMB	55.8	67.5
1956	OMB	50.7	62.2
1957	OMB	47.3	58.8
1958	OMB	47.8	59.1
1959	OMB	46.5	57
1960	OMB	44.3	54.4
1961	OMB	43.6	53.5
1962	OMB	42.3	51.7
1963	OMB	41.1	50.2
1964	OMB	38.8	47.8
1965	OMB	36.8	45.4
1966	OMB	33.8	42.1
1967	OMB	31.9	40.7
1968	OMB	32.3	41.1
1969	OMB	28.4	37.3
1970	OMB	27.1	36.4
1971	OMB	27.1	36.6
1972	OMB	26.5	35.8
1973	OMB	25.2	34.5
1974	OMB	23.2	32.6
1975	OMB	24.6	33.7
1976	OMB	26.7	35.2
1977	OMB	27.1	34.9
1978	OMB	26.7	34.2
1979	OMB	25	32.3
1980	OMB	25.5	32.6
1981	OMB	25.2	31.8
1982	OMB	27.9	34.3
1983	OMB	32.2	38.8
1984	OMB	33.1	39.6
1985	OMB	35.3	42.6
1986	OMB	38.5	46.8
1987	OMB	39.6	49.2
1988	OMB	39.9	50.6
1989	OMB	39.4	51.6
1990	OMB	40.9	54.4
1991	OMB	44.1	59.1
1992	OMB	46.8	62.4
1993	OMB	47.9	64.2
1994	OMB	47.8	64.7
1995	OMB	47.7	65.1
1996	OMB	47	65.2
1997	OMB	44.6	63.5
1998	OMB	41.7	61.3
1999	OMB	38.3	59.1
2000	OMB	33.7	55.6
2001	OMB	31.5	54.8
2002	OMB	32.7	57.2
2003	OMB	34.7	59.9
2004	OMB	35.7	61.1
2005	OMB	35.8	61.6
2006	OMB	35.4	62
2007	OMB	35.2	62.6
2008	OMB	39.2	67.5
2009	OMB	52.2	82.1
2010	OMB	60.6	90.9
2011	OMB	65.5	95.5
2012	OMB	70	99.6
2013	OMB	71.8	100.2
2014	OMB	73.3	102.1
2015	OMB	72.2	99.8
2016	OMB	76	104.8
2017	OMB	75.7	104.3
2018	OMB	77.1	105
2019	OMB	78.9	106.5
2020	OMB	98.5	126.1
2021	OMB	96.7	123.2
2022	OMB	94.9	120.6
2023	OMB	95.8	120.4
2024	OMB	97.4	121.7
2025	OMB	99.5	123.3
2026	CBO projection	100.6	123.6
2027	CBO projection	102.1	123.9
2028	CBO projection	104.1	124.9
2029	CBO projection	105.8	125.5
2030	CBO projection	107.7	126.2
2031	CBO projection	109.6	126.8
2032	CBO projection	111.5	127.8
2033	CBO projection	114	130.1
2034	CBO projection	116.2	132.2
2035	CBO projection	118	134.2
2036	CBO projection	120.2	136.4
2037	CBO projection	122.4	138.6
2038	CBO projection	124.7	140.8
2039	CBO projection	127.1	143.2
2040	CBO projection	129.4	145.5
2041	CBO projection	131.7	147.9
2042	CBO projection	134.2	150.3
2043	CBO projection	136.6	152.7
2044	CBO projection	139.2	155.3
2045	CBO projection	141.8	157.8
2046	CBO projection	144.5	160.4
2047	CBO projection	147.3	163.2
2048	CBO projection	150.1	165.9
2049	CBO projection	153	168.8
2050	CBO projection	156	171.7
2051	CBO projection	159	174.6
2052	CBO projection	162.2	177.6
2053	CBO projection	165.3	180.7
2054	CBO projection	168.5	183.9
2055	CBO projection	171.8	187
2056	CBO projection	175.1	190.2

Download 10-debt-share-of-gdp-1940-2056.csv

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Higgins Strategy. “Debt held by the public is projected to pass its 1946 record in 2030” Exhibit 2, The Debt, the Waste and the Tax (Study X). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/10-debt-share-of-gdp-1940-2056/