The calendar of the cut
Source. OPM memoranda of February 4 and November 13, 2025; Federal Register, September 15, 2026; SpacePolicyOnline and CRA on the CR; BLS CES. January 2025 – December 2026.
Method and data
Method. The sequence from the buyout offer to the FY2027 continuing resolution. Most buyout takers stayed on payroll until September 30, 2025; the shutdown began the next day; the ending legislation barred mass reductions in force until January 30, 2026; OPM’s rule weighting performance over tenure took effect September 2, 2026; and there is no shutdown as of October 2, 2026 — the CR, signed September 2, 2026 (P.L. 119-103), funds government to December 11. The vertical rule is October 2, 2026, the date of the study. Bars end at the close of the period shown; an open-ended rule is drawn to the end of 2026. The probationary terminations, the agency buyout windows and the 2026 lapses rest on agency releases or secondary sources and are listed under What we could not verify.
| Event | From | To | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deferred-resignation offer open (Jan 28 – Feb 12, 2025) | January 28, 2025 | February 12, 2025 | OPM memorandum, February 4, 2025; NBC |
| DRP participants paid through Sept 30, 2025 | February 6, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | OPM memorandum, February 4, 2025 |
| Shutdown, Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2025 (43 days) | October 1, 2025 | November 12, 2025 | OPM CHCOC memorandum, November 13, 2025 |
| Moratorium on mass RIFs to Jan 30, 2026 (CR) | November 12, 2025 | January 30, 2026 | OPM CHCOC memorandum, November 13, 2025 |
| OPM reduction-in-force rule in effect (from Sept 2, 2026) | September 2, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | Federal Register, September 15, 2026 |
| FY2027 continuing resolution, to Dec 11, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | December 11, 2026 | SpacePolicyOnline; CRA |
| Payroll flat at 2,681–2,689k nationally (Jan – Sept 2026) | January 1, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | BLS CES |
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Higgins Strategy. “The calendar of the cut” Exhibit 16, Every Federal Job in the Region (Study VIII). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/viii-ex13-timeline/