Scored at $867B, the pandemic checks paid $814B; households said they spent about a quarter
| Measure | 2020–21: three checks | 2026: $5,000 each |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | Scored $867B, paid $814B | $1.60T |
| Share spent in the months after | 29% · 26% · 25% (three rounds, spent or planned) | 24.7% (March 2021 survey): $395B |
| Not spent: saved or paid to creditors | About 74% · $600B | 75.3% · $1.20T |
| Output per dollar (CBO’s range for the 2020 rebates, weak economy) | 0.25–1.5 | 0.25–1.5 |
| Inflation | About 3 points of core inflation by the end of 2021, all 2020–21 fiscal support (SF Fed) | Not estimated |
| Interest on the borrowing | $123B paid so far · $28B a year now | $56B a year · $1.58T by year 20 |
Source. JCT, JCX-11-20, JCX-24-20 and JCX-14-21; pandemicoversight.gov (PRAC); New York Fed, Survey of Consumer Expectations; CBO Working Paper 2020-07; FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-07; Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rates, January 2021 – August 2026. Also: JCT, JCX-11-20; JCT, JCX-24-20; IRS Statistics of Income, Economic Impact Payments, Table 1 (first round); IRS, Commissioner’s testimony, February 23, 2021 (second round); IRS, “All third Economic Impact Payments issued”; PRAC (Wayback capture); New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics; FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-07; Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rates, monthly. 2020–21 checks; the 2026 proposal.
Method and data
Method. Scored: JCT’s estimates of the three enacted rounds, $292.4 billion (JCX-11-20), $164.1 billion (JCX-24-20) and $410.6 billion (JCX-14-21, the bill as amended by the Senate) = $867.1 billion. Not spent: each round’s payments × (1 − its share spent: 29.2%, 25.5%, 24.7%) = $599.9 billion of $814 billion (73.7%), on $271.4, $142 and $401 billion paid. The rounds are IRS figures (round 1, calendar year 2020, IRS Statistics of Income Table 1) and sum to $814.4 billion; the $814 billion total is PRAC’s; the sources’ totals differ by $0.4 billion. Interest so far = $814 billion × the Treasury’s average rate on interest-bearing debt each month, January 2021 – August 2026, ÷ 12 = $123.3 billion (simple interest, all $814 billion from January 2021; the monthly rates are in the CSV linked below); at 3.49%, $28.4 billion a year. The 3 points are the San Francisco Fed’s estimate for all 2020–21 fiscal support (Jordà, Liu, Nechio and Rivera-Reyes, March 28, 2022); no estimate is made for the 2026 check. 2026: the March 2021 share applied to $1,597.7 billion. Monthly rates (CSV).
Download CSV. Data and chart licensed CC BY 4.0.
Higgins Strategy. “Scored at $867B, the pandemic checks paid $814B; households said they spent about a quarter” Exhibit 12, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-then-and-now/