The same shape, three and a half times the size
Source. New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics (April 7, 2021), third-round shares; CBO Working Paper 2020-07 (the 0.25–1.5 range); Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rate, August 2026. Also: CBO Working Paper 2020-07 (Wayback capture); Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rates. March 2021 shares; rate August 2026.
Method and data
Method. Each check split on the New York Fed’s March 2021 shares (24.7% spent or expected to be spent, 41.6% saved, 33.7% to creditors). Extra output = the check × 0.25 to 1.5, CBO’s range for the 2020 rebates in a weak economy with the Fed on hold. Interest = the check × 3.49% a year, and × (1.0349^20 − 1) over twenty years with the interest borrowed. $5,000 ÷ $1,400 = 3.57.
| Check | Amount | Spent | Saved | To creditors | Output, low | Output, high | Interest a year | Interest, 20 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2021 · $1,400 per person | 1,400 | 346 | 582 | 472 | 350 | 2,100 | 48.9 | 1,380 |
| 2026 · $5,000 per person | 5,000 | 1,235 | 2,080 | 1,685 | 1,250 | 7,500 | 174.5 | 4,930 |
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Higgins Strategy. “The same shape, three and a half times the size” Exhibit 11, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-same-shape-1400-and-5000/