Medicaid had the largest improper-payment estimate in FY2025: $37.4 billion
Source. PaymentAccuracy.gov (OMB), FY2025 dataset, “All Program Results”. Fiscal year 2025.
Method and data
Method. The sixteen largest FY2025 estimates of improper and unknown payments, with each program’s improper-payment rate (improper and unknown payments over the program’s outlays) and its outlays.
| Program | Agency | Improper payments ($bn) | Rate (%) | Outlays ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid | HHS | 37.4 | 6.1 | 611.0 |
| Medicare Fee-for-Service (FFS) | HHS | 28.8 | 6.6 | 439.9 |
| Medicare Advantage (Part C) | HHS | 23.7 | 6.1 | 388.7 |
| IRS Earned Income Tax Credit | Treasury | 21.1 | 32.7 | 64.7 |
| Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program | USDA | 10.2 | 10.9 | 93.5 |
| Shuttered Venue Operators Grant Program | SBA | 10.1 | 68.9 | 14.6 |
| Supplemental Security Income (SSI) | SSA | 7.3 | 11.6 | 63.3 |
| Unemployment Insurance | DOL | 5.6 | 14.9 | 37.7 |
| IRS Additional Child Tax Credit | Treasury | 4.5 | 13.6 | 33.4 |
| Project-based rental assistance (Section 8 etc.) | HUD | 4.3 | 26.4 | 16.5 |
| Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit (Part D) | HHS | 4.2 | 4.0 | 105.6 |
| Federal Highway Administration Highway Planning and Construction | DOT | 2.4 | 3.9 | 61.8 |
| Compensation | VA | 2.3 | 1.5 | 157.5 |
| Disability Insurance (DI) | SSA | 2.3 | 1.6 | 143.4 |
| 7(a) Loan Guarantees Approvals | SBA | 1.6 | 6.1 | 26.6 |
| Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) | SSA | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1,287.5 |
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Higgins Strategy. “Medicaid had the largest improper-payment estimate in FY2025: $37.4 billion” Exhibit 12, The Debt, the Waste and the Tax (Study X). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/10-06b-improper-payments-top-programs-fy2025/