Six published answers to “what do tariffs cost a household?”
Source. Tax Foundation, Trump Tariffs Tracker, last updated September 2, 2026; The Budget Lab at Yale, The State of U.S. Tariffs, editions of February 20, April 8 and August 24, 2026.
The Tax Foundation’s tracker, updated September 10, 2026, now gives $820.
Method and data
Method. Figures as published, not adjusted to a common basis. They are not rival estimates of one quantity. The Tax Foundation figures are a tax incidence calculation — customs duties collected, distributed across households. The Budget Lab figures are a welfare calculation — the equivalent loss of income. The two Budget Lab April figures are one estimate under two policy scenarios. The February figure follows the Supreme Court’s ruling vacating the IEEPA tariffs, which cut the effective rate overnight. The Tax Foundation page does not state a dollar-year basis; the Budget Lab’s February and April estimates are in 2025 dollars.
| Institution | Measure | Date | US dollars per household | Published range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Lab at Yale | post-SCOTUS estimate | 2026-02-20 | 800 | |
| Tax Foundation | average tax increase | 2026 | 840 | |
| Budget Lab at Yale | welfare loss, Sec. 122 expires | 2026-04-08 | 940 | $760–940 |
| Tax Foundation | average tax increase | 2025 | 1000 | |
| Budget Lab at Yale | consumer cost | 2026-08-24 | 1100 | |
| Budget Lab at Yale | welfare loss, Sec. 122 extended | 2026-04-08 | 1500 | $1,200–1,500 |
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Higgins Strategy. “Six published answers to “what do tariffs cost a household?”” Exhibit 1, The Same Question, Different Numbers (Study III). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/e3-1-tariff-cost-per-household/