The last AAA was lost over this: 18% of revenue, headed to 30%
Source. Moody’s Ratings, rating action of May 16, 2025 (United States downgraded to Aa1), as quoted by Expansión, “Moody’s rebaja calificación crediticia de Estados Unidos a Aa1” (May 16, 2025). Also: Moody’s Ratings, United States rating (the May 16, 2025 action). 2021, 2024 and 2035 (projected); general government, 2024.
Method and data
Method. Federal interest payments as a share of revenue, 2021, 2024 and Moody’s projection for 2035; and interest across all levels of government as a share of general-government revenue in 2024, against the figure for Aaa-rated sovereigns. The figures are Moody’s, quoted by Expansión; the press release itself sits behind a login and was not retrieved.
| Basis | Year | Interest, % of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Federal government | 2021 | 9.0 |
| Federal government | 2024 | 18.0 |
| Federal government | 2035 (projected) | 30.0 |
| All levels of government, 2024 | United States | 12.0 |
| All levels of government, 2024 | Aaa-rated sovereigns | 1.6 |
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Higgins Strategy. “The last AAA was lost over this: 18% of revenue, headed to 30%” Exhibit 11, The Interest Bill (Study XII). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/12-moodys-interest-share-of-revenue/