Interest passed defense and Medicare in 2024; Medicare again 2028, Social Security 2047
Source. OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Tables 1.2 and 3.1, 1970–2025; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1, 2026–2056 (saved by hand from cbo.gov). Also: OMB, Table 1.2; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056. Fiscal years 1970–2025 (actual; defense through 2025) and 2026–2056 (CBO projection).
Method and data
Method. Outlays by function (OMB Table 3.1) ÷ GDP (Table 1.2), fiscal years 1970–2025; CBO’s extended baseline, 2026–2056. Medicare is function 570, net of premiums and other offsetting receipts (CBO’s Table 1 Medicare column is on the same basis). FY2024: net interest $879.9 billion, Medicare $874.1 billion, national defense $873.5 billion. CBO: interest 3.513% of GDP against Medicare 3.47% in 2028, and 5.792% against Social Security 5.789% in 2047; in 2056 interest is 6.93% of GDP of total spending of 27.932%, 24.8%. Defense ends at FY2025, the last actual year; no defense projection is drawn.
| Fiscal year | Net interest | Defense | Social Security | Medicare, net | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.37 | 7.80 | 2.89 | 0.59 | OMB actual |
| 1971 | 1.33 | 7.06 | 3.21 | 0.59 | OMB actual |
| 1972 | 1.27 | 6.51 | 3.30 | 0.61 | OMB actual |
| 1973 | 1.28 | 5.67 | 3.63 | 0.60 | OMB actual |
| 1974 | 1.45 | 5.35 | 3.77 | 0.65 | OMB actual |
| 1975 | 1.45 | 5.38 | 4.02 | 0.80 | OMB actual |
| 1976 | 1.50 | 5.02 | 4.14 | 0.89 | OMB actual |
| 1977 | 1.48 | 4.80 | 4.20 | 0.96 | OMB actual |
| 1978 | 1.56 | 4.60 | 4.13 | 1.00 | OMB actual |
| 1979 | 1.66 | 4.53 | 4.06 | 1.03 | OMB actual |
| 1980 | 1.88 | 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.15 | OMB actual |
| 1981 | 2.19 | 5.03 | 4.45 | 1.25 | OMB actual |
| 1982 | 2.57 | 5.59 | 4.71 | 1.41 | OMB actual |
| 1983 | 2.54 | 5.94 | 4.83 | 1.49 | OMB actual |
| 1984 | 2.81 | 5.76 | 4.51 | 1.46 | OMB actual |
| 1985 | 3.04 | 5.93 | 4.42 | 1.54 | OMB actual |
| 1986 | 3.01 | 6.04 | 4.39 | 1.55 | OMB actual |
| 1987 | 2.91 | 5.91 | 4.35 | 1.58 | OMB actual |
| 1988 | 2.95 | 5.65 | 4.27 | 1.54 | OMB actual |
| 1989 | 3.04 | 5.46 | 4.19 | 1.53 | OMB actual |
| 1990 | 3.13 | 5.07 | 4.21 | 1.66 | OMB actual |
| 1991 | 3.19 | 4.49 | 4.42 | 1.71 | OMB actual |
| 1992 | 3.11 | 4.65 | 4.48 | 1.86 | OMB actual |
| 1993 | 2.93 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 1.93 | OMB actual |
| 1994 | 2.83 | 3.92 | 4.45 | 2.02 | OMB actual |
| 1995 | 3.07 | 3.60 | 4.44 | 2.11 | OMB actual |
| 1996 | 3.03 | 3.34 | 4.40 | 2.19 | OMB actual |
| 1997 | 2.89 | 3.20 | 4.32 | 2.25 | OMB actual |
| 1998 | 2.70 | 3.00 | 4.25 | 2.16 | OMB actual |
| 1999 | 2.42 | 2.90 | 4.11 | 2.01 | OMB actual |
| 2000 | 2.20 | 2.91 | 4.05 | 1.95 | OMB actual |
| 2001 | 1.96 | 2.90 | 4.11 | 2.07 | OMB actual |
| 2002 | 1.58 | 3.22 | 4.21 | 2.13 | OMB actual |
| 2003 | 1.36 | 3.59 | 4.21 | 2.21 | OMB actual |
| 2004 | 1.33 | 3.79 | 4.12 | 2.24 | OMB actual |
| 2005 | 1.43 | 3.86 | 4.08 | 2.33 | OMB actual |
| 2006 | 1.66 | 3.83 | 4.02 | 2.42 | OMB actual |
| 2007 | 1.66 | 3.85 | 4.10 | 2.62 | OMB actual |
| 2008 | 1.71 | 4.16 | 4.17 | 2.64 | OMB actual |
| 2009 | 1.29 | 4.57 | 4.72 | 2.97 | OMB actual |
| 2010 | 1.32 | 4.66 | 4.75 | 3.03 | OMB actual |
| 2011 | 1.49 | 4.56 | 4.73 | 3.14 | OMB actual |
| 2012 | 1.37 | 4.21 | 4.80 | 2.93 | OMB actual |
| 2013 | 1.32 | 3.80 | 4.88 | 2.98 | OMB actual |
| 2014 | 1.31 | 3.46 | 4.88 | 2.94 | OMB actual |
| 2015 | 1.23 | 3.25 | 4.89 | 3.01 | OMB actual |
| 2016 | 1.29 | 3.18 | 4.91 | 3.19 | OMB actual |
| 2017 | 1.36 | 3.09 | 4.88 | 3.08 | OMB actual |
| 2018 | 1.59 | 3.09 | 4.83 | 2.88 | OMB actual |
| 2019 | 1.76 | 3.22 | 4.91 | 3.06 | OMB actual |
| 2020 | 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.14 | 3.64 | OMB actual |
| 2021 | 1.53 | 3.27 | 4.92 | 3.02 | OMB actual |
| 2022 | 1.86 | 2.99 | 4.77 | 2.95 | OMB actual |
| 2023 | 2.40 | 2.99 | 4.94 | 3.09 | OMB actual |
| 2024 | 3.04 | 3.02 | 5.05 | 3.02 | OMB actual |
| 2025 | 3.20 | 3.02 | 5.21 | 3.29 | OMB actual |
| 2026 | 3.26 | 5.22 | 3.33 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2027 | 3.33 | 5.31 | 3.42 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2028 | 3.51 | 5.41 | 3.47 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2029 | 3.68 | 5.49 | 3.57 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2030 | 3.83 | 5.57 | 3.63 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2031 | 3.99 | 5.64 | 3.70 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2032 | 4.15 | 5.71 | 3.79 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2033 | 4.27 | 5.76 | 3.92 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2034 | 4.39 | 5.81 | 4.04 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2035 | 4.49 | 5.85 | 4.13 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2036 | 4.59 | 5.88 | 4.22 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2037 | 4.69 | 5.87 | 4.30 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2038 | 4.79 | 5.88 | 4.39 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2039 | 4.89 | 5.86 | 4.48 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2040 | 4.99 | 5.80 | 4.57 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2041 | 5.10 | 5.77 | 4.65 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2042 | 5.22 | 5.80 | 4.73 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2043 | 5.33 | 5.78 | 4.80 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2044 | 5.44 | 5.78 | 4.87 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2045 | 5.55 | 5.77 | 4.94 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2046 | 5.68 | 5.77 | 5.00 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2047 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 5.06 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2048 | 5.91 | 5.80 | 5.11 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2049 | 6.02 | 5.81 | 5.17 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2050 | 6.14 | 5.80 | 5.21 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2051 | 6.27 | 5.84 | 5.26 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2052 | 6.40 | 5.90 | 5.30 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2053 | 6.53 | 5.89 | 5.34 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2054 | 6.66 | 5.95 | 5.38 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2055 | 6.79 | 5.97 | 5.42 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 | |
| 2056 | 6.93 | 5.99 | 5.45 | CBO extended baseline, February 2026 |
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Higgins Strategy. “Interest passed defense and Medicare in 2024; Medicare again 2028, Social Security 2047” Exhibit 9, The Interest Bill (Study XII). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/12-07-interest-vs-programs-pct-gdp/