Higgins Strategy

From Study XI, Exhibit 19

Borrowed at 3.49%, the check costs twice itself by year 20; at today’s ten-year yield, 2.8 times

Source. Treasury Fiscal Data, average rate on interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); FRED DGS10, October 1, 2026 (5.24%), via ALFRED. Also: FRED, DGS10, via ALFRED. Years 0–30 after the payment.

Method and data

Method. Total cost = $1,226.4 billion × (1 + rate)^year, the interest rolled over annually and the rate held constant; not a forecast. The headline is the 3.49% average on existing debt: ×1.41 ($1.73 trillion) by year 10, ×1.99 ($2.44 trillion) by year 20, ×2.8 ($3.43 trillion) by year 30. The alternative is the 10-year yield, what new borrowing costs: ×1.67, ×2.78 and ×4.63 ($5.68 trillion).

YearMultiple at 3.49%Cost at 3.49% ($bn)Multiple at 5.24%Cost at 5.24% ($bn)
01.001,226.41.001,226.4
11.031,269.21.051,290.6
21.071,313.51.111,358.3
31.111,359.31.171,429.4
41.151,406.81.231,504.3
51.191,455.81.291,583.2
61.231,506.71.361,666.1
71.271,559.21.431,753.4
81.321,613.71.501,845.3
91.361,670.01.581,942.0
101.411,728.31.672,043.8
111.461,788.61.752,150.9
121.511,851.01.852,263.6
131.561,915.61.942,382.2
141.621,982.42.042,507.0
151.672,051.62.152,638.4
161.732,123.22.262,776.6
171.792,197.32.382,922.1
181.852,274.02.513,075.2
191.922,353.42.643,236.4
201.992,435.52.783,406.0
212.062,520.52.923,584.4
222.132,608.53.083,772.3
232.202,699.53.243,969.9
242.282,793.73.414,178.0
252.362,891.23.584,396.9
262.442,992.13.774,627.3
272.523,096.63.974,869.7
282.613,204.64.185,124.9
292.703,316.54.405,393.5
302.803,432.24.635,676.1

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Higgins Strategy. “Borrowed at 3.49%, the check costs twice itself by year 20; at today’s ten-year yield, 2.8 times” Exhibit 19, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-adult-check-compounded-at-two-rates/