2021: 6% unemployment, zero rates. 2026: 4% and 3.75%
| Episode | Amount | Paid ($bn) | Payment (% of GDP) | Unemployment (%) | Fed funds (%) | Inflation, 12-month (%) | Saving rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2020 | $1,200 | 271.4 | 1.36 | 14.8 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 31.8 |
| Jan 2021 | $600 | 142.0 | 0.63 | 6.4 | 0.09 | 1.40 | 19.5 |
| Mar 2021 | $1,400 | 401.0 | 1.77 | 6.1 | 0.07 | 2.62 | 26.2 |
| Proposed (adults) | $5,000 | 1,226.4 | 3.77 | 4.2 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 4.1 |
Source. BLS (UNRATE; CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted), Federal Reserve (FEDFUNDS), BEA (PSAVERT, GDP) via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026; IRS payments by round. Also: IRS Statistics of Income, Economic Impact Payments, Table 1 (first round); IRS, Commissioner’s testimony, February 23, 2021 (second round); IRS, “All third Economic Impact Payments issued”; FEDFUNDS, via ALFRED; CPIAUCNS, via ALFRED; GDP, via ALFRED; PSAVERT, via ALFRED. April 2020, January 2021, March 2021; September 2026 (inflation and saving, August 2026).
Method and data
Method. Payment as a share of annualized GDP: each round’s payments over GDP at an annual rate for its quarter (2020 Q2 $19,958.3 billion; 2021 Q1 $22,704.7 billion); the proposal, adult citizens ($1,226.4 billion) over 2026 Q2 ($32,563.03 billion). Unemployment and the effective federal funds rate for the month; the proposal at September 2026. Inflation is the twelve-month change in CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted; the proposal’s and its saving rate are August 2026. The rounds are IRS figures (round 1, calendar year 2020, IRS Statistics of Income Table 1) and sum to $814.4 billion; the $814 billion total is PRAC’s; the sources’ totals differ by $0.4 billion.
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Higgins Strategy. “2021: 6% unemployment, zero rates. 2026: 4% and 3.75%” Exhibit 14, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-10-conditions-each-check/