From Study V · Part Three, Exhibit 11
Ten high-contrast pairs, from New Mexico and New Jersey to FY2019 and FY2021, with the figures on both sides
| Side | Measure | Value |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico and New Jersey: two-to-one, and the balance says why | ||
| New Mexico | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $19,137 |
| New Mexico | Contracts per resident | $6,346 |
| New Mexico | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $6,766 |
| New Mexico | Grants per resident | $5,953 |
| New Mexico | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +91% |
| New Mexico | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | +$16,178 |
| New Jersey | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $9,548 |
| New Jersey | Contracts per resident | $977 |
| New Jersey | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $5,556 |
| New Jersey | Grants per resident | $3,015 |
| New Jersey | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +57% |
| New Jersey | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | −$2,011 |
| Virginia and Oregon: the contract state and the state without one | ||
| Virginia | Contracts per resident, FY2025 | $13,578 |
| Virginia | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $6,253 |
| Virginia | Grants per resident | $3,180 |
| Virginia | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +109% |
| Virginia | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | +$16,650 |
| Oregon | Contracts per resident, FY2025 | $487 |
| Oregon | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $6,711 |
| Oregon | Grants per resident | $4,751 |
| Oregon | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +84% |
| Oregon | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | +$4,389 |
| Florida and Utah: the oldest large state and the youngest | ||
| Florida | Residents 65 and over, 2025 | 22.85% |
| Florida | Social Security per resident, 2024 | $4,780 |
| Florida | Medicare fee-for-service per resident, 2024 | $1,236 |
| Florida | Direct payments per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $6,695 |
| Florida | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $10,544 |
| Utah | Residents 65 and over, 2025 | 13.02% |
| Utah | Social Security per resident, 2024 | $3,002 |
| Utah | Medicare fee-for-service per resident, 2024 | $636 |
| Utah | Direct payments per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $4,154 |
| Utah | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $7,875 |
| Mississippi and Connecticut: the match rate and the money | ||
| Mississippi | FMAP, FY2025 (the highest in the country) | 76.90% |
| Mississippi | Per capita income, 2024 | $51,611 |
| Mississippi | Federal Medicaid per resident, FY2024 | $1,890 |
| Mississippi | Grants per resident, FY2025 | $3,566 |
| Mississippi | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | +$11,714 |
| Connecticut | FMAP, FY2025 (the statutory floor) | 50.00% |
| Connecticut | Per capita income, 2024 | $97,810 |
| Connecticut | Federal Medicaid per resident, FY2024 | $1,830 |
| Connecticut | Grants per resident, FY2025 | $4,081 |
| Connecticut | Balance of payments per resident, FFY2023 (Rockefeller) | +$2,937 |
| North Dakota: $123,129 per resident as recorded, $13,149 with Medicare set aside | ||
| As recorded | All awards per resident, FY2025, as recorded | $123,129 |
| As recorded | Medicare as recorded per resident | $109,979 |
| As recorded | Medicare fee-for-service per North Dakota resident, 2024 (CMS) | $1,302 |
| As recorded | Rank among the 50 states and DC, as recorded | 1st |
| Medicare set aside | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $13,149 |
| Medicare set aside | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $6,873 |
| Medicare set aside | Contracts per resident | $1,027 |
| Medicare set aside | Rank among the 50 states and DC, Medicare set aside | 14th |
| Minnesota: the fastest-growing state, or the fifth-slowest | ||
| As recorded | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, as recorded | +275% |
| As recorded | Per resident, FY2014, as recorded | $11,066 |
| As recorded | Per resident, FY2025, as recorded | $41,530 |
| As recorded | Medicare recorded to Minnesota, FY2014 and FY2025 | $25.0B and $182B |
| Medicare set aside | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +60% |
| Medicare set aside | Per resident, FY2014, Medicare set aside | $6,472 |
| Medicare set aside | Per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $10,328 |
| Medicare set aside | 50 states and DC, growth, Medicare set aside | +76% |
| The District of Columbia: a capital, not a state | ||
| District of Columbia | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $70,232 |
| District of Columbia | Contracts per resident | $45,307 |
| District of Columbia | Grants per resident | $19,932 |
| District of Columbia | Rail grants to Amtrak recorded to DC by recipient location, FY2025 | $14.8B |
| District of Columbia | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $4,948 |
| District of Columbia | IRS gross collections per resident, FY2025 | $60,067 |
| 50 states and DC | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $11,781 |
| 50 states and DC | Contracts per resident | $2,164 |
| 50 states and DC | Grants per resident | $3,542 |
| 50 states and DC | Direct payments per resident, Medicare set aside | $6,021 |
| Alaska: the biggest grants, the fastest nominal growth | ||
| Alaska | Grants per resident, FY2025 | $11,296 |
| Alaska | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $25,027 |
| Alaska | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +140% |
| Alaska | Federal Medicaid per resident, FY2024 | $2,964 |
| Alaska | VA per resident, FY2024 | $1,632 |
| Texas | Grants per resident, FY2025 (the lowest state) | $2,115 |
| Texas | All awards per resident, FY2025, Medicare set aside | $9,712 |
| Texas | Growth per resident, FY2014–FY2025, Medicare set aside | +81% |
| Texas | Federal Medicaid per resident, FY2024 | $955 |
| Texas | VA per resident, FY2024 | $972 |
| Medicare per enrollee: California and New York against Hawaii and Montana | ||
| California and the high states | California, fee-for-service Medicare per beneficiary, 2024 | $17,054 |
| California and the high states | New York | $16,650 |
| California and the high states | New Jersey | $15,596 |
| California and the high states | Connecticut | $15,587 |
| Montana and the low states | Montana, fee-for-service Medicare per beneficiary, 2024 | $10,514 |
| Montana and the low states | Hawaii | $10,613 |
| Montana and the low states | New Mexico | $10,800 |
| Montana and the low states | Idaho | $10,899 |
| 2021 and 2019: the pandemic in one state and in all of them | ||
| 50 states and DC, FY2019 | All awards per resident, FY2019, Medicare set aside | $8,213 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2019 | Contracts | $1,653 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2019 | Direct payments, Medicare set aside | $4,113 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2019 | Grants | $2,244 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2019 | Loans (as reported) | −$19 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2021 | All awards per resident, FY2021, Medicare set aside | $12,862 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2021 | Contracts | $1,809 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2021 | Direct payments, Medicare set aside | $6,066 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2021 | Grants | $3,923 |
| 50 states and DC, FY2021 | Loans (as reported) | $825 |
Source. USAspending.gov; SSA; CMS; MACPAC; VA; Rockefeller Institute; BEA; Census Bureau; 88 FR 81090; IRS Data Book. FY2025 unless labeled.
Method and data
Method. Ten comparisons, each with a reason the data can name. Each figure is per resident on the population of its year unless labeled; Florida’s and Utah’s shares 65 and over are Census Vintage 2025 (July 1, 2025); Social Security per resident is SSA Table 5.J1 ÷ the July 1, 2024 population; fee-for-service Medicare per resident and per beneficiary are CMS’s Geographic Variation file, 2024; the balance of payments is Rockefeller’s Table 11. The ranks count the 50 states and DC. Each pair’s explanation is in the text.
Download CSV. Data and chart licensed CC BY 4.0.
Higgins Strategy. “Ten high-contrast pairs, from New Mexico and New Jersey to FY2019 and FY2021, with the figures on both sides” Exhibit 11, Federal Dollars by State, Over Time (Study V · Part Three). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/05c-high-contrast-pairs/