Higgins Strategy

Data

136 datasets · 11 studies · a CSV for each

Study I · Measuring the Economy

Which Inflation?

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Nine measures of the same monthBLS Consumer Price Index release, August 12, 2026 (series CUUR0000SA0L1E, CUUR0000SA0, CWUR0000SA0, SUUR0000SA0, CUUR0000SASL2RS); BEA Personal Income and Outlays, August 26, 2026 (PCEPI, PCEPILFE); Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland median and 16% trimmed-mean CPI, August 12, 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2June 2026: the same month, in opposite directionsBLS CPI release for June 2026, published July 14, 2026; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland median and trimmed-mean CPI for June 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3Why CPI runs above PCE — two official decompositionsMcCully, Moyer and Stewart, “Comparing the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index,” BEA Survey of Current Business, November 2007; BLS, Focus on Prices and Spending, Vol. 2 No. 3, May 2011.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4The same two categories, weighted three times differentlyJohnson, “A comparison of PCE and CPI: Methodological differences in U.S. inflation calculation and their implications,” BLS working paper, November 2017, Table 6. Weights for 2014–2016.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5What a contractor pays, against the national indexBLS Producer Price Index, series WPUIP2311001, inputs to residential construction, goods, released August 13, 2026 (index 323.198 in July 2025 to 344.861 in July 2026); BLS CPI release, August 12, 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study II · Measuring the Economy

Two Reports, One Economy

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1The minority section, where we could establish its spanReport title pages and tables of contents, retrieved from FRASER (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and jec.senate.gov.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2The same year, the same frame, the opposite verdictH. Rept. 117–386, filed June 24, 2022, at govinfo.gov; the minority response was also published as a standalone document at jec.senate.gov.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3Days past the statutory filing deadlineFiling dates read from the title page of each report (FRASER and jec.senate.gov). Statutory deadline at 15 U.S.C. § 1024(b)(3): “not later than March 1 of each year.”Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study III · Measuring the Economy

The Same Question, Different Numbers

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Six published answers to “what do tariffs cost a household?”Tax Foundation, Trump Tariffs Tracker, last updated September 2, 2026; The Budget Lab at Yale, The State of U.S. Tariffs, editions of February 20, April 8 and August 24, 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2The 2017 tax law: agreement, then divergenceJoint Committee on Taxation, JCX-69-17, December 22, 2017; Tax Foundation, Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, December 18, 2017.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3What does federal regulation cost per year?Clyde Wayne Crews Jr., Ten Thousand Commandments 2026, Competitive Enterprise Institute, April 9, 2026; Office of Management and Budget, FY2023 benefit-cost report, January 2025 (2001 dollars).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4The same decomposition, two windows, opposite signsPancotti and Owens, Inflation Revelation, Groundwork Collaborative, January 18, 2024; Ryan Bourne, “New Nonsense on Profit-Driven Inflation,” Cato Institute, January 25, 2024, reporting a calculation by Chris Conlon.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5Who lets you check the modelGitHub organization pages inspected directly, September 2026; repository counts as of October 5, 2026; Joint Committee on Taxation, The Joint Committee on Taxation Revenue Estimating Process, February 2019, and JCX-69-17, December 22, 2017.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study V · Part Three · The Federal Dollars Series

Federal Dollars by State, Over Time

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Alaska was recorded as receiving $25,027 per resident in FY2025 and Utah $7,875, Medicare set asideUSAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2USAspending records $87.9 billion of Medicare to North Dakota; spread by enrollment, North Dakota’s share would be $2.6 billionUSAspending.gov spending by geography, FY2025 (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770); CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment, 2025 annual average; CMS Medicare Geographic Variation file, 2024Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3Recorded Medicare doubled from $578 billion in FY2014 to $1,164 billion in FY2025, and its largest line moved from Pennsylvania to MinnesotaUSAspending.gov spending by geography (scope recipient location, geo layer state), Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, award types 06 and 10Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4Awards per resident rose 76% from FY2014 to FY2025, Medicare set aside; Alaska’s rose 140% and Utah’s 74%USAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5Alaska’s awards per resident grew fastest from FY2014 to FY2025, +140%, and Tennessee’s slowest, +55%, Medicare set asideUSAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
6Contracts were 64% of the District’s FY2025 awards and 59% of Virginia’s, Medicare set aside; across the 50 states and DC, 18%USAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
7Grants and direct payments per resident stayed above their FY2019 level after the pandemic money left, Medicare set asideUSAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
8From FY2019 to FY2021 awards per resident rose $11,322 in Alaska and $3,185 in Alabama, Medicare set asideUSAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
9Every state was a net recipient in FFY2020 and FFY2021; in FFY2023 three were net payers, New Jersey the largestRockefeller Institute of Government, Giving or Getting? New York’s Balance of Payments with the Federal Government, 2025 Report (August 2025), Table 11Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
10Social Security and veterans’ spending follow age and veterans; grants and contracts do not follow poverty or incomeSSA Table 5.J1; VA GDX; MACPAC Exhibit 16; FNS; USAspending.gov; Census Bureau (Vintage 2025 ages; SAIPE); VA VetPop2023; BEA via FRED; 88 FR 81090; Rockefeller InstituteRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
11Ten high-contrast pairs, from New Mexico and New Jersey to FY2019 and FY2021, with the figures on both sidesUSAspending.gov; SSA; CMS; MACPAC; VA; Rockefeller Institute; BEA; Census Bureau; 88 FR 81090; IRS Data BookRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
12Of $6,975.7 billion of FY2025 outlays that are awardable in kind, $5,219.2 billion is recorded as awards to the states, DC and Puerto RicoUSAspending.gov, Account Data download, File B (object class by program activity by federal account), FY2025, as tabulated in Part Two (Who Pays and Who Gets, Plate XIV); USAspending.gov state profilesRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
13Four programs recorded by the beneficiary’s state match the agencies’ own state tables; Medicare does notUSAspending.gov spending by geography, FY2025; SSA Table 5.J1 and SSI Table 2; MACPAC Exhibit 16; VA GDX; FNS; CMS Medicare Geographic Variation fileRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
TextProgramme checks by state: USAspending FY2025 against the agencies’ state tablesUSAspending.gov spending by geography, FY2025; SSA Table 5.J1 and SSI Table 2; MACPAC Exhibit 16; VA GDX; FNS; CMS Medicare Geographic Variation fileRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
TextPrime award obligations by state and year, FY2014–FY2025, US dollars, millionsUSAspending.gov state profiles (prime award obligations by place of performance) and spending by geography (Medicare listings 93.773, 93.774, 93.770, by recipient location); Census Bureau population, July 1, via FREDRetrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study VIII · The Federal Dollars Series

Every Federal Job

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Per resident, the fewest federal civilian employees since 1940BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: all employees, federal government (CES9091000001) and federal except U.S. Postal Service (CES9091100001); BEA resident population (B230RC0A052NBEA) and Census monthly population (POPTHM).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2Both counts stopped falling in early 2026BLS CES, federal except Postal Service (CES9091100001), seasonally adjusted, via FRED; OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3Separations peaked in September 2025, the month of the first deferred-resignation deadlineOPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Dynamics: separations and accessions files, monthly.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4Every department and agency with 500 or more employees shrankOPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots (record counts).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5The IRS lost the most employees of any component; ICE gained the mostOPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, by agency and agency sub-element.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
6The newest employees fell by more than half; political appointees rose fourfoldOPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, January 2025 and May 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
7Deferred resignations by age: the largest group was 60 to 64OPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Dynamics: separations files, drp_indicator.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
8The largest falls were in Maryland, the District and AlaskaBLS State and Metro Area Current Employment Statistics via FRED: federal government employment by state, seasonally adjusted, and total nonfarm employment by state.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
9In the region, federal jobs stepped down in October 2025 and again in January 2026BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: federal government employment, District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia (seasonally adjusted) and the Washington–Arlington–Alexandria metropolitan area (SMU11479009091000001, not seasonally adjusted).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
10Of the region’s large duty-station counties, only Alexandria gainedOPM Federal Workforce Data, EHRI Status snapshots, duty-station county (published records only).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study VIII · The Federal Dollars Series

Every Federal Job in the Region

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
11The region fell faster than the countryBLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: CES9091000001 (US), SMS11000009091000001 (DC), SMS24000009091000001 (MD), SMS51000009091000001 (VA), SMU11479009091000001 (Washington MSA, not seasonally adjusted).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
12The region’s federal payroll, month by monthBLS CES SMU11479009091000001 via FRED, not seasonally adjusted (BLS publishes no seasonally adjusted federal series for the MSA).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
13Maryland lost the largest shareBLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED: CES9091000001 (US), SMS11000009091000001 (DC), SMS24000009091000001 (MD), SMS51000009091000001 (VA), SMU11479009091000001 (Washington MSA, not seasonally adjusted). Our arithmetic on the published series.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
14Buyouts did thirteen times the cutting that layoffs didPartnership for Public Service, “The Federal Workforce One Year into the Trump Administration”, tabulating OPM Federal Workforce Data; the remainder is our arithmetic (386,826 − 136,822 − 10,436).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
15Agency by agency: what agencies, auditors and OPM’s data reportTIGTA 2025-IE-R027; VA, July 8, 2025; GAO-26-108155 via Government Executive; GAO-26-108916 (OPM); USAID from the Partnership’s OPM tabulation.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
16The calendar of the cutOPM memoranda of February 4 and November 13, 2025; Federal Register, September 15, 2026; SpacePolicyOnline and CRA on the CR; BLS CES.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
17A quarter of the District’s economyBEA GDP by state, released September 30, 2026, via FRED (DCGOVFEDCIVNGSP ÷ DCNGSP, and the MD and VA equivalents); BEA, July 1, 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
18Payroll in the District and Maryland, contracts in VirginiaBEA, as Exhibit 17; USAspending state profiles (recipient/state/awards for DC, Maryland and Virginia, FY2025).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
19What was forecast, and what the payroll showsDC CFO, February 28, 2025 and June 30, 2026; Fuller Institute, GMU, as reported by GMU’s Schar School, January 2026; Oxford Economics as reported by CNN, March 16, 2025; BLS as Exhibit 11.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
20Eleven times the usual number of federal workers filed for unemployment in MarylandMaryland Department of Labor, high-frequency indicators, August 8, 2026.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
21Lease savings, claimed, and what GAO foundGAO-26-108615 (August 2026); Federal News Network, December 2025.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
22The trains filled while the payroll emptiedWMATA, FY2025 results; WMATA, FY2026 year-end results, September 10, 2026; BLS as Exhibit 12.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study IX · The Federal Dollars Series

Every Dollar of War

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1The Second World War towers over everything sinceOMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.1 and Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED; CBO, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026), Figure 1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2Defense took 3.0% of GDP and 13.1% of federal outlays in FY2025OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.1 and Table 10.1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3Defense spending in the post-9/11 years exceeded the Second World War’s in total dollars, across three and a half times as many yearsOMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.1 and Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4Designated war funding peaked at $186.9 billion in FY2008CRS, Overseas Contingency Operations Funding: Background and Status (R44519), September 6, 2019, Table 1, DOD column (FY2001–2019); DoD, Overview – FY 2022 Defense Budget (May 2021), Figure 7.5, enacted totals (FY2020–2021).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5What Brown’s $8.0 trillion counts beyond the war fundingBrown University, Watson Institute, Costs of War, U.S. federal budget page; Neta C. Crawford, “The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars”, September 1, 2021.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
6Operation and maintenance has been the largest title every year since 1988OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.2; Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED; CBO, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026), Figure 1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
7Development and humanitarian aid was the largest international line in 2025OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.2; Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED; CBO, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026), Figure 1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
8Disability compensation, pensions and medical care were nine-tenths of the veterans line in 2025OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.2; Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED; CBO, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026), Figure 1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
9The Marshall Plan years remain the largest per personForeignAssistance.gov, U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants (Greenbook) trend data, funding-agency basis, constant dollars.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
10Ukraine was still the largest recipient in FY2025ForeignAssistance.gov (U.S. Department of State), annual obligation files by activity (explorer_obligations_{FY}.csv), current dollars.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
11Israel has received more than any other country since 1946ForeignAssistance.gov, U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants (Greenbook) trend data, funding-agency basis, constant dollars.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
12In 2025 the United States accounted for 33.0% of world military spendingSIPRI, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025 (fact sheet, April 2026), Table 1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
13In FY2024 interest passed defense for the first time in the recordOMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.1, functions 050 and 900.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study X · The Federal Dollars Series

The Debt, the Waste and the Tax

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Debt per resident has more than quadrupled since 1946, in fiscal 2025 dollarsTreasury, Fiscal Data, Historical Debt Outstanding; OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition, Table 10.1; BEA population via FRED.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
2Debt held by the public is projected to pass its 1946 record in 2030OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 7.1; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 25, 2026), supplemental file 51119-2026-02-25-LTBO-Budget.xlsx, Table 1, Summary Data for CBO’s Extended Baseline Projections. Saved by hand from cbo.gov on October 5, 2026 (automated requests refused); SHA-256 recorded with the research.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
3The government has run a deficit in 52 of the 56 fiscal years since 1970OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 1.1 and Table 10.1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
4Net interest was 13.8% of federal outlays and 3.2% of GDP in FY2025OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 3.1, function 900 net interest; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 25, 2026), 62044-2026-LTBO.xlsx, Table 2, net interest outlays as a percentage of GDP, 1940–2056. Saved by hand from cbo.gov on October 5, 2026 (automated requests refused); SHA-256 recorded with the research.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
5Gross interest rose from $522.8 billion in FY2020 to $1.22 trillion in FY2025Treasury, Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities; Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
6Social Security, Medicare and interest take spending to 27.9% of GDP by 2056CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 25, 2026), supplemental file 51119-2026-02-25-LTBO-Budget.xlsx, Table 1, Summary Data for CBO’s Extended Baseline Projections. Saved by hand from cbo.gov on October 5, 2026 (automated requests refused); SHA-256 recorded with the research.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
7Corporate income taxes fell from 32% of receipts in 1952 to 8.6% in FY2025OMB Historical Tables, FY2027 edition (April 2026), Table 2.1 and Table 2.5; Table 1.1 and Table 10.1.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
8Customs refunds reached $125.2 billion in FY2026 through AugustTreasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 4 (Receipts of the United States Government), customs duties, via Fiscal Data.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
9In tax year 2023 the top 1% of returns paid 38.4% of individual income taxIRS Statistics of Income, tax year 2023, as summarized by the Tax Foundation, “Who Pays Federal Income Taxes? Tax Year 2023” (April 2026).Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
10The top 1%’s average federal tax rate was 31.5% in 2022, against 35.1% in 1979CBO, The Distribution of Household Income, 2022 (January 2026), supplemental data (61911-supplemental-data.xlsx), Table 9. Saved by hand from cbo.gov on October 5, 2026 (automated requests refused); SHA-256 recorded with the research.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
11Agencies reported $185.8 billion of improper payments in FY2025, up from $161.5 billionPaymentAccuracy.gov (OMB), FY2025 dataset, “All Program Results”.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
12Medicaid had the largest improper-payment estimate in FY2025: $37.4 billionPaymentAccuracy.gov (OMB), FY2025 dataset, “All Program Results”.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
13Twenty-four programs that were canceled, missed their goal or measured their lossesInspector-general, GAO, CRS and agency findings and press reports, as cited in each row; the firm’s own selection.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV
TextTotal public debt outstanding, October 1, 2026Treasury, Fiscal Data, Debt to the Penny.Retrieved October 5, 2026October 5, 2026CSV

Study XI · The Federal Dollars Series

Five Thousand Dollars Each

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1The promise is $1.23 trillion; the tariffs to pay for it net $167 billionCensus Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, Table B29001 (adult citizens); Reuters (all adults); Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 4 (customs); the Commerce Secretary’s claim, as reported by Newsweek.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
2One adult got $4,100 in today’s money in 2020–21; this pays $5,000IRS payment amounts by round; BLS CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted (CPIAUCNS), via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
3$5,000 for every citizen is $1.6 trillion, twice the pandemic checksOMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Tables 1.1 and 3.1; Census Bureau (POPTHM, ACS 2020–2024, Table B05001); pandemicoversight.gov (PRAC).Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
4Last time, households spent or planned to spend a quarter of the check; the rest was parkedFederal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Liberty Street Economics, “An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks” (April 7, 2021), table “How Households Use Their Stimulus Checks”.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
5At CBO’s range for the 2020 rebates, the output effect is $0.4T to $2.4T in a weak economyCBO, Working Paper 2020-07, Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output (October 2020), Tables 2 and 3; CBO, Working Paper 2015-02 (Whalen and Reichling), Table 2.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
6Taxed as income, the top bracket would keep $3,150 of $5,000; tax-free, everyone keeps it allIRS, Rev. Proc. 2025-32, section 4.01, Tables 1–4 (tax rate tables for taxable years beginning in 2026).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
7Borrowed, it costs $56 billion a year, more than all foreign affairsTreasury Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, total interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget, Table 3.1.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
8Rolled over, the interest equals the checks in year 21Treasury Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, total interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); FRED, 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, October 1, 2026 (5.24%).Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
9Each citizen gets $5,000 once; each resident pays $163 a year for itCensus Bureau, POPTHM via ALFRED; Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rate on interest-bearing debt, August 2026; OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget, Table 1.1 (FY2025 receipts).Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
10The checks went into savings first, then into pricesBEA, personal saving rate (PSAVERT) and personal saving (PMSAVE); BLS, CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted (CPIAUCNS); via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
11The same shape, three and a half times the sizeNew York Fed, Liberty Street Economics (April 7, 2021), third-round shares; CBO Working Paper 2020-07 (the 0.25–1.5 range); Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rate, August 2026.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
12Scored at $867B, the pandemic checks paid $814B; households said they spent about a quarterJCT, JCX-11-20, JCX-24-20 and JCX-14-21; pandemicoversight.gov (PRAC); New York Fed, Survey of Consumer Expectations; CBO Working Paper 2020-07; FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-07; Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rates, January 2021 – August 2026.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
13The share households said they spent fell with each check: 29%, 26%, 25%New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, “An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks” (April 7, 2021), table; JCT, JCX-11-20, JCX-24-20 and JCX-14-21.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
142021: 6% unemployment, zero rates. 2026: 4% and 3.75%BLS (UNRATE; CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted), Federal Reserve (FEDFUNDS), BEA (PSAVERT, GDP) via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026; IRS payments by round.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
15$1.23 trillion is 3.8% of GDP and 20 days of consumer spendingBEA via ALFRED: GDP (2026 Q2), PCE and disposable personal income (August 2026), annual rates; OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget, Tables 1.1 and 3.1; PRAC.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
16Adds 3.7 points of GDP to the debt, on a path that passes 1946 in 2030CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1, and data file 62044, Table 2 (saved by hand from cbo.gov).Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
17A household’s payment is a third of a year’s income at the bottom and 2% at the topCBO, The Distribution of Household Income, 2022 (January 2026), supplemental data, Table 3 (saved by hand from cbo.gov); Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year, Tables B29001 and B11001.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
18Of every dollar spent in FY2025, 25 cents was borrowed; new ten-year money costs 5.24%Treasury constant-maturity yields (FRED DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10, DGS30), October 1, 2026, via ALFRED; Treasury Fiscal Data, average rate on interest-bearing debt, August 2026; OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget, Table 1.1.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
19Borrowed at 3.49%, the check costs twice itself by year 20; at today’s ten-year yield, 2.8 timesTreasury Fiscal Data, average rate on interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); FRED DGS10, October 1, 2026 (5.24%), via ALFRED.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
20One borrowed dollar is $1.41 in ten years at 3.49% and $1.67 at today’s ten-year yieldTreasury Fiscal Data, average rate on interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); FRED DGS10, October 1, 2026 (5.24%), via ALFRED.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
21No listed offset covers more than a sixth of the $1.23 trillionTreasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 4 (customs); GAO, “$186 Billion Was Lost to Improper Payments Last Year” (FY2025).Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
TextOf every dollar spent in FY2025, 25 cents was borrowedOMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Table 1.1.Retrieved October 7, 2026October 7, 2026CSV
TextThe Treasury’s average rate on interest-bearing debt, January 2021 – August 2026Treasury Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, total interest-bearing debt.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV

Study XII · The Federal Dollars Series

The Interest Bill

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Interest takes 18.5¢ of each tax dollar; CBO’s path takes it to 37¢OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Tables 1.1 and 3.1; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1 (saved by hand from cbo.gov).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
2Net interest is 3.2% of GDP, a record; CBO has it at 6.9% by 2056OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Tables 1.2 and 3.1; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1 (saved by hand from cbo.gov).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
3The bill more than doubled in five years; about 60% of the rise was higher ratesTreasury Fiscal Data, Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding (fiscal year to date at September 30) and Debt to the Penny (total public debt outstanding, September 30).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
4A third of the debt rolls over within a year, at 4–5.6%, not 3.5%GAO, Federal Debt Management, GAO-26-107529 (March 2026), marketable debt by time to maturity; FRED constant-maturity Treasury yields (DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10, DGS30), October 1, 2026, via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026; Treasury Fiscal Data, average interest rate on total interest-bearing debt, August 2026.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
5When the rate on the debt rises above growth, the debt feeds on itselfTreasury Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, total interest-bearing debt, monthly; OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Table 1.2 (GDP, fiscal years).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
60.1 point on interest rates is $379 billion over ten yearsCBO, How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036 (April 2026), rules of thumb.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
7One point on rates adds 47 points of GDP to the debt by 2056CBO, Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for Interest Rates and the Budget (September 24, 2026), supplemental data (saved by hand from cbo.gov); CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), Table 2.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
8Holding the debt where it is takes $9.5 trillion over ten yearsCommittee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “$10 Trillion to Get to 3% and Other Fiscal Goals” (February 20, 2026), on CBO’s February 2026 baseline.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
9Interest passed defense and Medicare in 2024; Medicare again 2028, Social Security 2047OMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget (April 2026), Tables 1.2 and 3.1, 1970–2025; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental file 51119, Table 1, 2026–2056 (saved by hand from cbo.gov).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
10Of each borrowed dollar, 33¢ comes out of private investmentCBO, Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios (August 2021).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
11The last AAA was lost over this: 18% of revenue, headed to 30%Moody’s Ratings, rating action of May 16, 2025 (United States downgraded to Aa1), as quoted by Expansión, “Moody’s rebaja calificación crediticia de Estados Unidos a Aa1” (May 16, 2025).Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV
TextReal interest: net interest less inflation on the debt, FY2025 and on CBO’s pathOMB, Historical Tables, FY2027 Budget, Tables 1.2, 3.1 and 7.1; BLS CPI-U (CPIAUCSL) via ALFRED, vintage of October 3, 2026; CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), supplemental files 51119 (Table 1) and 57054 (Table 1, growth of the CPI-U), saved by hand from cbo.gov.Retrieved October 11, 2026October 11, 2026CSV

Study XIX · The States

Every State Dollar

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Federal money was 34% of the states’ general revenue in fiscal 2024: 50% in Louisiana and 49% in Alaska, 34% in Maryland and 27% in VirginiaCensus Bureau, Annual Survey of State Government Finances, fiscal 2024: intergovernmental revenue from the federal government (SF0004) as a share of total general revenue (SF0002).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
2The federal share of state general revenue rose from 31% in 2012 to 37% in 2021 and was 34% in 2024; Virginia’s has stayed six to twelve points below itCensus Bureau, Annual Survey of State Government Finances, fiscal 2012–2024, SF0004 over SF0002.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
3Federal money to state governments came to $3,159 per resident in fiscal 2024: $6,963 in Alaska; Maryland received $3,263, Virginia $2,517Census Bureau, Annual Survey of State Government Finances, fiscal 2024 (SF0004); Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 population estimates, July 1, 2024.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
4By the states’ own budget accounts, federal funds paid for 34% of all state spending in fiscal 2025: 49% in Louisiana, 31% in Maryland, 28% in VirginiaNational Association of State Budget Officers, 2025 State Expenditure Report, Table 1: total state expenditures by fund source, fiscal 2025 (estimated).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
5Maryland’s general fund is 39% of its spending and federal funds 31%; Virginia runs more through other state funds, 34%, $8.5 billion of it transportationNASBO, 2025 State Expenditure Report, Table 1, fiscal 2025 (estimated); Virginia’s other state funds by function, Tables 9 (higher education) and 21 (transportation).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
6Public welfare, which is mostly Medicaid, took 32% of state general spending in 2024, up from 28% in 2014; it is 35% in Maryland and 29% in VirginiaCensus Bureau, Annual Survey of State Government Finances, fiscal 2014 and 2024: public welfare (SF0353) as a share of total general expenditure (SF0133).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
7Washington paid 64% of the $944 billion Medicaid cost in fiscal 2024: 78% in New Mexico, Kentucky and West Virginia, 64% in Virginia, 60% in MarylandMACPAC, MACStats: Medicaid and CHIP Data Book, February 2026, Exhibit 16: Medicaid spending by state, category and source of funds, fiscal 2024.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
8The national SNAP payment error rate was 10.62% in fiscal 2025; 19 states and the District were at or above 10%, the top band of the new state matchUSDA Food and Nutrition Administration (formerly Food and Nutrition Service), SNAP payment error rates, fiscal 2025 (dated June 24, 2026) and fiscal 2024.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
9Applied to fiscal 2025 benefits, fiscal 2025 error rates would put $11.1 billion of the $95.6 billion in SNAP benefits on state budgetsCalculation from USDA Food and Nutrition Administration, SNAP payment error rates, fiscal 2025; SNAP state-level participation and benefits, fiscal 2025 (total benefits, October 2024 to September 2025); P.L. 119-21, §10105, as described by CRS R48552.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
10SNAP rolls fell 13% between June 2025 and June 2026, from 41.7 million people to 36.4 million; Maryland fell 6%, Virginia 8% and the District 6%USDA Food and Nutrition Administration, SNAP state-level monthly participation and benefits, fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 workbooks (persons participating, June 2025 and June 2026).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
11States ended fiscal 2025 with $191 billion in rainy day funds, 14.9% of general fund spending (median 13.5%); Virginia held 13.0%, Maryland 9.2%NASBO, Spring 2026 Fiscal Survey of States, Table 19: rainy day fund balances, dollar amount and percentage of expenditures, fiscal 2025 (actual).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
12Fourteen states take more than the national share of their revenue from Washington and hold less than the median rainy day fundCensus Bureau, Annual Survey of State Government Finances, fiscal 2024 (Exhibit 1); NASBO, Spring 2026 Fiscal Survey of States, Table 19 (Exhibit 11).Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV

Study XVIII · The Capital Region

What the Region Makes

ExhibitTitle and sourceRetrievedData
1Since 2000 Virginia’s economy grew 69% in real terms and the nation’s 70%; Maryland’s grew 62% and the District’s 58%BEA, Regional Economic Accounts, SAGDP9, real GDP by state, chained 2017 dollars, 2000–2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
2The District’s GDP per resident, $278,205, is the highest of any state or district; Virginia ranks 15th and Maryland 17th, both near the national $90,294BEA SAGDP2 (GDP by state, current dollars) and SAINC1 (midyear population), 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
3Government is 30% of the District’s output and professional services 24%; finance and real estate lead Maryland and VirginiaBEA SAGDP2, GDP by state by industry, current dollars, 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
4Virginia’s manufacturing share fell from 13.2% of GDP in 2000 to 7.3% in 2025; professional and business services rose from 13.8% to 18.2%BEA SAGDP2, Virginia, GDP by industry, current dollars, 2000 and 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
5The federal government, civilian and military, produced 28% of the District’s GDP in 2025, 12% of Maryland’s and 8% of Virginia’s, against 3.6% nationallyBEA SAGDP2, lines 84 (federal civilian) and 85 (military) as a share of line 1, 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
6The District’s federal share fell from 36% in 1997 to 28% in 2025; since 2010 Maryland’s has held at 12.3–13.4% and Virginia’s fell from 10.7% to 8.4%BEA SAGDP2, lines 84 and 85 as a share of line 1, 1997–2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
7Federal civilian jobs were 25% of covered employment in the District in 2025, 5.5% in Maryland and 4.5% in Virginia; the national share is 1.9%BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual averages 2025, federal government ownership (all industries) over all ownerships.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
8Federal jobs fell 6.5% in Maryland, 3.9% in the District and 2.9% in Virginia from 2024 to 2025 on the annual average; the nation fell 2.9%BLS QCEW, federal government ownership, annual average employment, 2015–2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
9Per capita personal income in 2025: $119,772 in the District, $82,387 in Maryland, $80,903 in Virginia, $77,028 nationallyBEA SAINC1, per capita personal income by state, current dollars, 1990–2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
10Virginia exported $19.1B of goods in 2025 and Maryland $16.6B; per resident, $2,152 and $2,643 against $6,308 nationallyCensus Bureau, International Trade API, exports by origin-of-movement state, all commodities, 2013–2025; imports by state of destination, 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
11Canada is the largest market for both states: $2.2B of Maryland’s exports and $3.0B of Virginia’s; France is Maryland’s second and Mexico Virginia’sCensus Bureau, International Trade API, exports by origin-of-movement state and country of destination, 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV
12Transportation equipment leads Maryland’s manufactured exports at $3.5 billion; chemicals lead Virginia’s at $2.4 billionCensus Bureau, International Trade API, exports by origin-of-movement state, NAICS 311–339, 2025.Retrieved October 12, 2026October 12, 2026CSV