30 crossover seats are defended on the 2026 maps
Source. Cook Political Report, March 2025; Sabato’s Crystal Ball, October 2026
Method and data
Method. Cook counts members who won in 2024 in seats carried by the opposing party’s presidential nominee: 13 Democrats and 3 Republicans. Crystal Ball counts the crossover seats each party is defending on the maps in place for 2026: 22 Democratic and 8 Republican; 30 is the sum of those two counts, not a Crystal Ball figure. The two counts are different measures: a count of members who won in 2024 and a count of seats defended after redistricting. The 8 include two open seats and one seat held by an independent. The totals, 16 and 30, are therefore not a like-for-like comparison.
| Base | Seats | As of | Publisher |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats in Republican-carried seats, won 2024 | 13 | March 18, 2025 | Cook Political Report |
| Republicans in Democratic-carried seats, won 2024 | 3 | March 18, 2025 | Cook Political Report |
| Democrats in Republican-carried seats, defending 2026 | 22 | October 8, 2026 | Sabato’s Crystal Ball, as published by Rasmussen Reports |
| Republicans in Democratic-carried seats, defending 2026 | 8 | October 8, 2026 | Sabato’s Crystal Ball, as published by Rasmussen Reports |
