Winners' platforms fit new laws better in 10 of 19 elections
Source. Comparative Agendas Project, platforms and public laws
Method and data
Method. Overlap = 100 x (1 - 0.5 x the sum over 20 major topics of the absolute difference between a platform's topic shares and the topic shares of the non-commemorative public laws of the Congress that opens after the election). Quasi-sentences without a policy topic are left out. For 2020 the losing platform is the 2016 Republican text, which the 2020 convention kept.
| Election and winner | Next Congress | Winner’s overlap with laws | Loser’s overlap with laws | Winner minus loser | Control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 D | 81 | 37.3 | 48.7 | −11.4 | unified |
| 1952 R | 83 | 47.6 | 51.9 | −4.3 | unified |
| 1956 R | 85 | 56.8 | 50.5 | 6.3 | divided |
| 1960 D | 87 | 52.6 | 48.2 | 4.4 | unified |
| 1964 D | 89 | 52 | 52 | 0 | unified |
| 1968 R | 91 | 64.2 | 55 | 9.2 | divided |
| 1972 R | 93 | 60.1 | 57.4 | 2.7 | divided |
| 1976 D | 95 | 58.1 | 63.6 | −5.5 | unified |
| 1980 R | 97 | 54.2 | 55.2 | −1 | divided |
| 1984 R | 99 | 56.5 | 50.4 | 6.1 | divided |
| 1988 R | 101 | 55.3 | 54 | 1.3 | divided |
| 1992 D | 103 | 49.9 | 57.1 | −7.2 | unified |
| 1996 D | 105 | 50.2 | 57.2 | −7 | divided |
| 2000 R | 107 | 53.2 | 50 | 3.2 | ambiguous (Senate 50–50 at opening; Democratic after June 2001) |
| 2004 R | 109 | 53.5 | 50.7 | 2.8 | unified |
| 2008 D | 111 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 2 | unified |
| 2012 D | 113 | 57.4 | 65.1 | −7.7 | divided |
| 2016 R | 115 | 71 | 62.9 | 8.1 | unified |
| 2020 D | 117 | 61.8 | 68.3 | −6.5 | unified |
