From Study V · Part Three, Exhibit 13
Four programs recorded by the beneficiary’s state match the agencies’ own state tables; Medicare does not
| Program (assistance listings) | USAspending, FY2025 | Agency table | Agency source | Pearson r | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Security (96.001, 96.002, 96.004) | 1,545.9 | 1,450.0 | SSA, Annual Statistical Supplement 2025, Table 5.J1 (estimated total annual OASDI benefits, 2024) | 1.000 | 51 |
| Medicaid grants (93.778) | 662.3 | 608.0 | MACPAC Exhibit 16, federal share, FY2024 | 0.999 | 51 |
| Veterans (64.109, 64.110, 64.104) | 184.5 | 292.9 | VA GDX, FY2024, all expenditure | 0.991 | 51 |
| SNAP (10.551) | 86.9 | 94.2 | FNS, May 2025 × 12 | 0.999 | 51 |
| SSI (96.006) | 64.4 | 66.3 | SSA, SSI federal and federally administered state payments, December 2024 × 12 | 0.981 | 51 |
| Medicare (93.773, 93.774, 93.770) | 1,154.1 | 376.9 | CMS fee-for-service Parts A and B by residence, 2024 | 0.182 | 51 |
Source. USAspending.gov spending by geography, FY2025; SSA Table 5.J1 and SSI Table 2; MACPAC Exhibit 16; VA GDX; FNS; CMS Medicare Geographic Variation file. FY2025 awards; agency tables for 2024, FY2024 or May 2025, as noted.
Method and data
Method. National totals and the correlation across the 50 states and DC between what USAspending records to each state in FY2025 under the program’s assistance listings (spending by geography, scope recipient location) and what the responsible agency publishes for the state’s residents in its own statistical tables (different years, as noted). The agency figures are for 2024, FY2024 or May 2025 and the award figures for FY2025, so levels differ by a year’s growth; the test is whether the state pattern is the same. SSA’s SSI figure counts federal and federally administered state payments; California’s federally administered state supplement ($3.26 billion in calendar 2024, SSA Table 4) is in the SSA figure but not in assistance listing 96.006, and without California r = 1.000. Each r is calculated by the firm from the 51 pairs in the by-state CSV (05c-programme-checks-by-state-fy2025.csv).
Download CSV. Data and chart licensed CC BY 4.0.
Higgins Strategy. “Four programs recorded by the beneficiary’s state match the agencies’ own state tables; Medicare does not” Exhibit 13, Federal Dollars by State, Over Time (Study V · Part Three). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/fb5-18e-programme-checks-fy2025/