From Study I, Exhibit 1

Nine measures of the same month

Source. BLS Consumer Price Index release, August 12, 2026 (series CUUR0000SA0L1E, CUUR0000SA0, CWUR0000SA0, SUUR0000SA0, CUUR0000SASL2RS); BEA Personal Income and Outlays, August 26, 2026 (PCEPI, PCEPILFE); Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland median and 16% trimmed-mean CPI, August 12, 2026.

BEA’s annual update of September 30, 2026 revised PCE to 3.36 and core PCE to 2.98.

Method and data

Method. Twelve-month changes computed from published index levels rather than from rounded headline prints, so values carry two decimals. All nine describe July 2026. No seasonal-adjustment mixing: NSA where the agency publishes NSA for the twelve-month change. The five BLS rows are not seasonally adjusted; the Cleveland Fed median and trimmed mean and BEA’s two PCE indexes are published only seasonally adjusted. PCE and the Cleveland Fed measures are at the September 4, 2026 vintage (BEA’s August 26 release; the Cleveland Fed’s August 12 release).

MeasureTwelve-month change, %
Core CPI2.48
Trimmed-mean CPI2.6
Median CPI2.69
Services less rent of shelter2.99
Chained CPI-U3.29
Core PCE3.34
CPI-U, all items3.36
CPI-W3.4
Headline PCE3.7

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Higgins Strategy. “Nine measures of the same month” Exhibit 1, Which Inflation? (Study I). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/e1-1-measures-july-2026/