One point on rates adds 47 points of GDP to the debt by 2056
Source. CBO, Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for Interest Rates and the Budget (September 24, 2026), supplemental data (saved by hand from cbo.gov); CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 (February 2026), Table 2. Also: CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056. FY2025 (actual) and 2056 (CBO projections).
Method and data
Method. Debt held by the public in 2056: CBO’s extended baseline 175.1% of GDP; interest rates one percentage point above the baseline 222.1% (222.1 − 175.1 = 47 points), with a total deficit of 14.0% of GDP that year; primary deficits cut to average 0.2% of GDP over 2026–2056, 100.6%. FY2025 is CBO’s historical figure, 99.4% (Table 2; OMB Table 7.1 gives 99.5%).
| Scenario | Debt held by the public (% of GDP) |
|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | 99.4 |
| extended baseline | 175.1 |
| rates 1 point higher | 222.1 |
| primary deficit cut (to about 0.2% of GDP) to hold debt at 101% | 100.6 |
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Higgins Strategy. “One point on rates adds 47 points of GDP to the debt by 2056” Exhibit 7, The Interest Bill (Study XII). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/12-05-cbo-scenarios-debt-2056/