No listed offset covers more than a sixth of the $1.23 trillion
Source. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 4 (customs); GAO, “$186 Billion Was Lost to Improper Payments Last Year” (FY2025). Also: GAO (Wayback capture). FY2025 and FY2026 to August.
Method and data
Method. Each option’s amount ÷ $1,226.4 billion. Net customs duties are fiscal 2026 to August 31, 2026, after refunds; improper payments are GAO’s FY2025 total, from agency-reported data. The options overlap and are not additive. No estimate is shown for an income limit or for taxing the payment: both rest on a distribution of returns the study does not publish.
| Option | Covers ($bn) | Share of $1.23T (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Borrow it all (the default at a $1.77T deficit) | 1,226.4 | 100.0 |
| Net customs duties, FY2026, October–August (11 months) | 167.3 | 13.6 |
| Cancel every improper payment for a year ($186B) | 186.0 | 15.2 |
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Higgins Strategy. “No listed offset covers more than a sixth of the $1.23 trillion” Exhibit 21, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-16-financing-options/