Rolled over, the interest equals the checks in year 21
Source. Treasury Fiscal Data, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, total interest-bearing debt, August 2026 (3.49%); FRED, 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, October 1, 2026 (5.24%). Also: FRED, DGS10, via ALFRED. Years 0–30 after the payment.
Method and data
Method. Cumulative interest = principal × ((1 + rate)^year − 1), compounded annually: the interest is borrowed each year, as it has been every year since 2002, and the rate is held constant; not a forecast. On $1,597.7 billion at 3.49%: $653.8 billion by year 10, $1,575.2 billion by year 20 ($4,596 per resident), $2,873.7 billion by year 30. The multiples and the adult check’s total cost at 3.49% and 5.24% feed Exhibits 19 and 20.
| Year | Interest on $1.60T at 3.49% ($bn) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 55.8 |
| 2 | 113.5 |
| 3 | 173.2 |
| 4 | 235.0 |
| 5 | 298.9 |
| 6 | 365.1 |
| 7 | 433.6 |
| 8 | 504.5 |
| 9 | 577.9 |
| 10 | 653.8 |
| 11 | 732.4 |
| 12 | 813.7 |
| 13 | 897.9 |
| 14 | 985.0 |
| 15 | 1,075.1 |
| 16 | 1,168.4 |
| 17 | 1,264.9 |
| 18 | 1,364.8 |
| 19 | 1,468.2 |
| 20 | 1,575.2 |
| 21 | 1,686.0 |
| 22 | 1,800.6 |
| 23 | 1,919.2 |
| 24 | 2,041.9 |
| 25 | 2,168.9 |
| 26 | 2,300.4 |
| 27 | 2,436.4 |
| 28 | 2,577.2 |
| 29 | 2,722.9 |
| 30 | 2,873.7 |
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Higgins Strategy. “Rolled over, the interest equals the checks in year 21” Exhibit 8, Five Thousand Dollars Each (Study XI). October 12, 2026. https://higginsstrategy.com/charts/11-06-compounding-years-0-30/